该行表示，公司存量业务风险出清，较为稳定。10月27-30日，国家医保局将开展新一轮医保谈判。公司核心品种先必新已经历两轮谈判降价，该行认为目前单次治疗费用已经较为合理。公司两款创新产品科塞拉（CDK4/6抑制剂）和恩立妥（EGFR单抗）在此次谈判名单中，该行期待这两款产品纳入医保后明年有望销售放量。China International Capital Corporation released a research report stating that the target price of Simcere Pharma (02096) has been raised to 8.8 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining an 'outperform industry' rating. The bank stated that Simcere Pharma's existing business is relatively stable recently, and its research pipeline is progressing smoothly.
China International Capital Corporation's main views are as follows:
The business is stable, with an expected central growth of around 15% in revenue and non-GAAP profit in the next two years.
The bank stated that the company's existing business risks have been cleared and are relatively stable. From October 27 to 30, the National Medical Insurance Administration will conduct a new round of medical insurance negotiations. The company's core products, Xianbixin and Enlitu, have undergone two rounds of negotiation for price reduction. The bank believes that the current single treatment cost is reasonable. In this negotiation list, the bank expects these two innovative products, Cosela (CDK4/6 inhibitor) and Entresto (EGFR monoclonal antibody), to be included in medical insurance, with the potential for significant sales growth next year.
The pipeline progress is smooth, looking forward to the future implementation of overseas license-out agreements.
The bank predicts that the innovative drugs that the company is expected to be approved for soon are: 1) Xianbixin sublingual tablets, expected to be approved in the next 1-2 months, with the bank estimating future sales potential to exceed 1.5 billion yuan; 2) Enzeshu (VEGF monoclonal antibody for ovarian cancer), expected to be approved in 1H25; 3) Kovicol (darelease) for insomnia treatment, the third-generation dual orexin receptor antagonist, expected to be approved in 2025. In addition, innovative drugs like Ledorchibid monoclonal antibody (IL-4) and Madaonosavir (influenza) are in phase III clinical trials. Among early research products, SIM0500 (GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3, multiple myeloma) is the first to have received FDA fast track designation.
In addition, innovative drugs such as Ledorchibid monoclonal antibody (IL-4) and Madaonosavir (influenza) are in phase III clinical trials. Among early research products, SIM0500 (GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3, multiple myeloma) is the first to have received FDA fast track designation.
In addition, research on early products, SIM0500 (GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3, multiple myeloma), is the first to receive FDA fast-track designation
Drugs targeting the same designation，currently in Phase 1 clinical trials, the bank believes it has the potential for overseas license-out.
Risk warning: New product promotion falls short of expectations, worsened competitive landscape, R&D failures, and slower-than-expected internationalization.
