Shareholders might have noticed that The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.4% to US$11.17 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.0b were what the analysts expected, Western Union surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.78 per share, an impressive 81% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Western Union's 16 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$4.21b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 9.6% to US$1.81 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.83 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$12.97, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Western Union at US$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Western Union's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Western Union's top line has shrunk approximately 4.5% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.6% annually. Although Western Union's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Western Union going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Western Union (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
