We Think Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd (SZSE:002597) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd (SZSE:002597) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002597) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍华德·马克斯说得很好,与其担心股价波动,'永久性损失的可能性才是我担心的风险...我认识的每一个实际投资者都担心这一点。'因此,看起来聪明的投资者知道,债务(通常涉及破产)是评估公司风险的一个非常重要因素。我们注意到,安徽金禾实业股份有限公司(SZSE:002597)的资产负债表上确实存在债务。但这笔债务是否会让股东担忧呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
当企业无法通过自由现金流或以合适价格筹集资金而难以轻易地履行债务和其他负债时,债务和其他负债对企业而言就具有风险。资本主义的一个重要内容就是“创造性破坏”过程,其中银行家会没有任何怜悯地清算破产企业。然而,一个更为常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,企业不得不以低价发行新股份,从而永久性地稀释股东。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表了廉价资本,特别是当它替代了具有高回报率再投资能力的公司稀释股权时。在我们审查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd's Net Debt?
金禾实业有多少净债务?
As you can see below, Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd had CN¥1.70b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥3.24b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.54b net cash.
正如您在下面所看到的,安徽金禾实业2024年6月的债务为17亿人民币,与前一年大致相同。您可以点击图表了解更详细信息。然而,其资产负债表显示其持有32.4亿人民币的现金,因此实际上有15.4亿净现金。

A Look At Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd's Liabilities
金禾实业有限公司负债的情况
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.84b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.24b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥3.24b and CN¥1.19b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.35b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
从最近的资产负债表中我们可以看到,金禾实业有限公司有180亿人民币的短期到期负债,12.4亿人民币的长期到期负债。另一方面,公司有32.4亿人民币的现金和11.9亿人民币的一年内应收款项。所以实际上,公司比总负债多13.5亿人民币的流动资产。
This short term liquidity is a sign that Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这种短期流动性表明金禾实业有限公司很可能轻松偿还债务,因为其资产负债表远未拉长。简单来说,金禾实业有限公司有更多的现金而不是债务,这可以说是公司能够安全管理债务的一个良好迹象。
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 57% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
如果管理层无法阻止过去一年EBIT下降57%的情况再次发生,金禾实业有限公司的债务负担的适度可能变得至关重要。在偿还债务方面,营收下降并不比多喝含糖汽水对健康有用。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中可以最了解债务情况。但最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定金禾实业有限公司是否能够随着时间加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您想了解专业人士的看法,您可能会发现分析师利润预测报告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd recorded free cash flow of 43% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最后,公司只能用现金来偿还债务,而不能用会计利润。虽然金禾实业有限公司的资产负债表上有净现金,但我们仍然值得关注其将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解该公司正在快速(或在下降)建立现金平衡的速度。回顾最近三年,金禾实业有限公司的自由现金流占其EBIT的比例为43%,低于我们的预期。在偿还债务方面,这并不理想。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd has CN¥1.54b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we are not troubled with Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Anhui Jinhe IndustrialLtd (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
尽管调查公司债务始终是明智的,但在本案中,金禾实业有15.4亿元人民币的净现金和一个看起来不错的资产负债表。所以我们对金禾实业的债务使用并不担忧。资产负债表显然是在分析债务时应重点关注的地区。但最终,每家公司可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。为此,您应该了解我们发现的金禾实业的3个警示信号(其中1个有点令人担忧)。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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