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日経平均は大幅反発、衆院選の結果織り込み済みで買い戻し向かう

The Nikkei average rebounds significantly, heading for a buyback with the election results already priced in.

Fisco Japan ·  Oct 27, 2024 23:17

The Nikkei Average rebounded sharply. The front market transaction was closed at 38463.50 yen (estimated volume 0.9 billion 44.32 million shares), which rose 549.58 yen.

The Dow average in the US market last weekend fell 259.96 dollars to 42114.40 dollars, and the NASDAQ closed at 18518.61 points, which was 103.12 points higher. The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index surpassed expectations and was bought in anticipation of a soft landing, and then rose after being close. After that, the Dow began to decline due to sales that were wary of the decline in McDonald's (MCD) and long-term interest rate increases, and the decline widened until the end of the game. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ remained steady throughout the day with purchases expected from the financial results of major high-tech companies.

With the US stock market, which ended on the sidelines, today's Nikkei Average is ahead because the ruling party broke through the majority in the weekend's House of Representatives election. However, as of last week, there is a possibility that the incorporation of the ruling party's majority split was progressing in a form where the sense of caution against the House of Representatives general election intensified, and after the morning sales went round, they switched back and forth and the range of increase widened greatly. Also, views spread that it became difficult for the Bank of Japan to move to raise additional interest rates at an early stage due to uncertainty in domestic politics, and it seems that the fact that the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen progressed was also a tailwind.

Individually, shipping stocks such as Kawasaki Line <9107> and NYK Line <9101>, semiconductor-related stocks such as Lasertec <6920>, and Toelec <8035> remained steady. Also, Toyota's own <7203>, Fast Lite <9983>, SoftBank G <9984>, Keyence <6861>, Recruit HD <6098>, Nintendo <7974>, etc. have risen. In addition, Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519), which was well received by the upward revision of performance above expectations, and Premier Group (7199), which further expanded the profit rate for the first half of the year, skyrocketed, and Lhotse <6323>, MacBeeP<7095>, FreeBit <3843>, etc. were at the top of the price increase rate.

Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011), IHI (7013), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012), etc. remained soft. Also, Shin-Etsu (4063) and Fujikura (5803) declined. Tokyo Steel (5423), where negative reactions intensified due to unexpected drastic downward revisions, and Olympus (7733), where reports of the resignation of CEO Kaufman were reported, plummeted. In addition, Nomi Disaster Prevention <6744>, Japan Steel Works <5631>, Aichi Corporation <6345>, etc. were at the top of the price drop rate.

By industry, while transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, shipping industries, etc. rose, mining, petroleum and coal products, chemicals, etc. declined.

It seems that the Nikkei Stock Average will continue to rise heavily in the aftermath. There is a possibility that the election results were factored in to some extent as of last weekend, but is there a shortage of new buying materials for it to rise one level from here on out? First, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting from the 30th to the 31st. It is said that there are almost no observations of policy interest rate hikes at this meeting, but attention will be drawn to whether a positive attitude towards additional interest rate increases will be confirmed in the “Economic and Price Situation Outlook (Outlook Report)” to be announced at the same time and Governor Ueda's press conference after the meeting. Also, we are preparing for the presidential election in the US on November 5, and an event where the trading hours of the Tokyo market will be extended by 30 minutes domestically, so I would like to anticipate the possibility that the wait-and-see mood will intensify due to immediate uncertainty. In addition, as financial results announcements for the fiscal year ending 7-9 are in full swing, it is likely that they will soon shift to development led by individual search.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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