尽管 Polymarket 等一些平台最近因涉嫌操纵而受到批评，但其他可靠的模型却倾向于特朗普。Bianco指出，Silver Bulletin 等顶级选举模型和其他两个流行模型也显示特朗普获胜的可能性高达 50% 以上。 Source: Cryptographic Yao
All forecasting websites and top models show that the candidate Donald Trump, who supports bitcoin [BTC], is more likely to win the upcoming USA presidential election.
According to analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and other forecasting websites predict Trump's chances of winning to be over 60%.
Potential Impact on BTC
Despite recent criticism of platforms like Polymarket for alleged manipulation, other reliable models lean towards Trump. Bianco points out that top election models like Silver Bulletin and two other popular models also show Trump's chances of winning to be over 50%.
"Silver is not the only company with election models. Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, The Economist magazine. They all believe that Trump's upward trend will exceed 50%.
Speculators in the BTC market see this unexpected phenomenon as bullish.
It is worth noting that as Trump's chances of winning soar and exceed 60% on Polymarket, BTC has shown explosive growth in the past few weeks. It pushed BTC up to nearly 70,000 USD. Commenting on this correlation, Bianco referred to it as an 'election game'.
"This is another election farce, although this relationship may be 'falling apart' in the past few days."
Market positioning
The optimistic expectations for Trump's victory mentioned above may have had the most significant impact on the BTC options market. Last week, options traders estimated a 20% probability of BTC reaching 80,000 USD by the end of November.
As of the time of writing, market sentiment remains unchanged. According to Deribit's data, the number of open call options (betting on the price rise) expiring on November 8th is almost twice the number of put options (price decrease).
Furthermore, the put/call ratio (PCR) tracking the sentiment of the options market stands at 0.55.
In the context, if the ratio is higher than 1, the number of put options exceeds the number of call options, reflecting a put sentiment. On the other hand, if the ratio is less than 1, it means that call options dominate, emphasizing a call sentiment.
Nevertheless, a PCR reading of 0.55 depicts an extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, perhaps because speculators believe that Trump is likely to win.
However, considering Harris's increasing support for cryptos, BTC options traders believe that regardless of who wins the USA election, this asset may hit an all-time high (ATH).
At the time of writing, the value of BTC is $67,000, about 9% below its $73,700 high.
