According to the latest data from CounterpointResearch, in the third quarter of 2024, the sales of smart phones in China increased by 2.3% year-on-year, achieving year-on-year positive growth for four consecutive quarters, with the possibility of achieving the first annual growth in five years.
Intelligent Finance and Economics APP learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that in the third quarter of 2024, global smart phone sales achieved the first year-on-year growth since 2018Q3, confirming signs of recovery in consumer electronics demand. According to the latest data from CounterpointResearch, in the third quarter of 2024, the sales of smart phones in China increased by 2.3% year-on-year, achieving year-on-year positive growth for four consecutive quarters. Faced with the bottleneck of growth in the smart phone market and the continuous lengthening of the consumer replacement cycle, the dual drive of foldable screens and AI is the key to breaking the impasse. The layout and technological progress of manufacturers in the industry chain related to foldable screens and AI will affect the changing competitive landscape of the industry.
China Galaxy Securities' main points are as follows:
In the Chinese market, Huawei's market share increased year-on-year, while Apple's slightly declined.
In the third quarter of 2024, looking at individual brands, Vivo still maintains a strong influence in the Chinese market with a market share of 19.2%, ranking first. Huawei's phone sales increased by 29.7% year-on-year, with a market share growth of 3.5 percentage points, mainly due to the promotion of high-end series such as Mate60 and Pura70. Although Apple launched its annual new product, the initial sales situation did not show a significant improvement year-on-year. iPhone sales in 202403 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 0.7% in market share. It is expected that the sales of iPhone16 will gradually increase with the enhancement of subsequent market promotions. Xiaomi persists in its strategy of "high configuration, low price," with a shipment volume increase of 13.4% year-on-year and a 1.6 percentage point increase in market share.
Global mobile phone sales in 2024Q3 increased year-on-year, with Samsung taking the lead in market share.
In the third quarter of 2024, global smart phone sales achieved the first year-on-year growth since 2018Q3, confirming signs of recovery in consumer electronics demand. From the perspective of market share, Samsung maintained its first position with a 19% market share, driven by the successful launch of the GalaxyA54 and GalaxyS24 series. Apple and Xiaomi ranked second and third with market shares of 16% and 14% respectively; vivo saw a significant year-on-year increase in phone sales, reaching 10%, and a 1 percentage point increase in market share; OPPO's phone market share remained stable.
Foldable screens and AI dual-drive smartphones are rising in both volume and price, leading the industry in a new direction.
In recent years, the smart phone industry has encountered growth bottlenecks, with consumers extending their replacement cycles, and the growth recovery falling short of expectations, requiring a breakthrough in the industry. The industry believes that the future growth of the mobile phone market will mainly be driven by two factors:
1) Foldable Screens: Foldable screen smartphones are the new favorites in the high-end market, which is also leading the revival of smartphone consumption. Currently, aside from Apple, most major mobile phone manufacturers have entered the foldable screen market. Huawei's first tri-foldable phone, the Huawei Mate X, released on September 10th, has caused quite a stir. As foldable screen smartphones gain wider acceptance in the market, with continuous improvements in slimness and performance, their market penetration will expand to a broader audience.
2) AI Smartphones: The main features of AI smartphones include real-time, accuracy, and processing efficiency, as they can enhance user experience through self-learning, becoming a personalized assistant for seamless interaction, intelligent convenience, exclusive companionship, and secure trust. The industry turning point came with Apple's entry into AI smartphones, injecting confidence into this new wave of phone revolution.
Investment Suggestions: The industry believes that foldable screens and AI dual-drive smartphones are rising in both volume and price, and recommends focusing on Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.SZ), Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ), Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing (002384.SZ), Avary Holding (002938.SZ), Lingyi Itech (002600.SZ), Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Zhejiang Crystal-Optech (002273.SZ), Shenzhen FRD Science & Technology (300602.SZ), Jones Tech Plc (300684.SZ), and Jiangsu Gian Technology (300709.SZ).
Risk Warning: Risks include the consumer electronics industry's slower-than-expected recovery, exacerbation of international trade tensions, unexpected technological advancements, and risks associated with production capacity constraints.
