利润方面，受惠下半年大麦成本较低，但与体育赛事行销相关的商业投资相对于第2季及上半年则持续降低，可能会导致利润水平下降。现时，集团下半年的销量/溢价/ASP/成本趋势持续改善，集团仍在实现下半年底线正增长的目标，但管理层认为政府补贴仍是一个影响因素。The management of China Resources Brewery expects future capital expenses to be reduced and is committed to gradually increasing the dividend ratio to 60%-70% over the next few years.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the trend of China Resources Beer (00291) improved in the 3rd quarter of this year, and beer continued to be high-end. Based on the complete global peer cycle of the past five years, the Group's target price was set at HK$38.1 based on an average value of 19 times in 2025, maintaining a “buy” rating. Furthermore, management expects future capital expenditure to be reduced and is committed to gradually increasing the dividend payout ratio to 60%-70% over the next few years.
The bank pointed out that as SuperX's sales volume turned positive after inventory removal and packaging changes in the first half of the year, Heineken continued to maintain a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, and Snowflake Beer also continued to maintain positive growth. China Resources Brewery's beer business continued to improve in the 3rd quarter, and consumer spending desires became more stable. Meanwhile, the upscale trend remained largely unchanged in the 3rd quarter.
In terms of profit, the cost of barley was lower in the second half of the year, but commercial investment related to sports event marketing continued to decline compared to the second quarter and the first half of the year, which may lead to a decline in profit levels. Currently, the Group's sales volume/premium/ASP/cost trend continues to improve in the second half of the year. The Group is still achieving the goal of positive bottom line growth in the second half of the year, but management believes that government subsidies are still an influencing factor.
