Shareholders might have noticed that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (HKG:874) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to HK$18.68 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥18b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥2.50 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings from six analysts is for revenues of CN¥82.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 8.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.0% to CN¥2.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥82.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.38 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$21.42, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$25.96 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$16.88. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$21.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
