Despite an already strong run, Shanghai Information2 Software Inc. (SHSE:688435) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 37% in the last thirty days. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 42% in the last twelve months.
Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Shanghai Information2 Software is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 12.6x, considering almost half the companies in China's Software industry have P/S ratios below 6.8x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
What Does Shanghai Information2 Software's Recent Performance Look Like?
The recent revenue growth at Shanghai Information2 Software would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the reasonable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Shanghai Information2 Software, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Shanghai Information2 Software's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.3%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 44% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 29% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Shanghai Information2 Software's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Shanghai Information2 Software's P/S
Shares in Shanghai Information2 Software have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
The fact that Shanghai Information2 Software currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Shanghai Information2 Software (at least 2 which are a bit concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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