债券在过去一个月遭到抛售，推动美国10年期国债收益率自8月初以来首次超过4%，主要原因是鉴于美国经济仍然强劲，投资者削减了对政策激进放松的押注。Bhatia表示，中东紧张局势以及美国总统大选后财政赤字扩大的前景加剧了市场的担忧。Neuberger Berman warns against buying US Treasury bonds on dips, stating that recent sell-offs may just be the beginning of a surprisingly sustained rise in yields.
The company's Co-Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income, Ashok Bhatia, stated that risks of the Fed pausing rate cuts, increasing market volatility, strong USA economic growth, and stubborn inflation could push the 5-year USA Treasury notes yield to around 4.50% in the next three months. Currently, the yield is around 4.13%.
Bhatia stated, "Fixed income investors should prepare for more downside volatility," with the risk of the 5-year USA Treasury notes yield returning to its mid-2024 high. New York-based Loomis Sayles manages assets of 5, 10 billion US dollars.
Bonds have been sold off in the past month, driving the USA 10-year Treasury notes yield above 4% for the first time since early August, mainly due to the view of a still strong USA economy leading investors to cut bets on aggressive policy easing. Bhatia mentioned that escalating tensions in the Middle East, along with concerns over widening fiscal deficits after the US presidential election, have intensified market worries.
Bhatia said that market pricing for terminal rates at 3.5% seems reasonable, but reaching that level will not be a straight line.
