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美国大选进入倒计时,这些市场成了“避风港”

USA election enters countdown, these markets have become "safe havens"

cls.cn ·  Oct 29 22:02

①In the final sprint stage of the US election, investors are selling the Japanese yen and turning to invest in cash, India, China markets, and some assets denominated in Singapore dollars; ②Pictet Asset Management said: "We actually think China is a good place to hide."

Cailianshe news on October 30th (Editor Huang Junzhi) Before the US election that may affect global fund and trade flows, investors are selling the Japanese yen and turning to invest in cash, India, China markets, and some assets denominated in Singapore dollars.

As Asia is a major exporting region, stocks and currencies are very sensitive to changes in US trade policy, so after the voting ends and in the coming months, there may be severe fluctuations in Asia's financial markets. This leads fund managers to avoid directly betting on the outcome, reduce exposure to vulnerabilities such as Japanese manufacturers, and bet on India or China stocks that would benefit regardless of who takes the White House.

"We actually think China is a good place to hide," said Jon Withaar, the Asia Special Situations Hedge Fund Manager at Pictet Asset Management, "because there are many domestic driving factors in the Chinese market, with a low correlation to global asset trends."

"For us, the best course of action is to sit on the sidelines and wait," he added.

In the "sprint stage" before the official US election, the market seems to be more bullish on Trump: as his poll support rises, the "Trump trades" in financial markets, from stocks to bitcoin and then to the Mexican peso, are returning.

Currently, financial markets have begun selling US bonds and buying US dollars, expecting the Trump administration to intensify inflation. In Asia, selling the low-yielding yen is the preferred choice as the yen-to-dollar exchange rate is at a historic low.

Nick Ferres, Chief Investment Officer of Vantage Point Asset Management, said he did not directly trade the election result, but holds short positions in the yen and owns Japanese stocks.

"Our feeling is that Donald will win, and may even win the Republican victory. This will boost the dollar, and Trump may be more inclined to support economic growth... The consequences might be higher interest rates, and even more rate cuts that the Fed is still conducting may not be realized due to high prices," he added.

In addition, investors are also looking for markets with minimal impact from tariff risks, or other markets where favorable factors such as population structure or China's stimulus commitments seem to be at play.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that emerging market funds have been increasing exposure to China and North Asia over the past month. Once the election is over and the uncertainty hanging over investors is lifted, this exposure may increase rapidly.

Allspring Global Investments portfolio manager Gary Tan said, "We believe that with China boosting its economy and the US cutting rates, the performance of emerging market stocks next year will outperform other markets."

Ray Sharma-Ong, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Solutions for Abrdn in Southeast Asia, said the Singapore dollar will remain strong against regional currencies, and the Indian stock market may also be unaffected.

"India benefits from strong domestic economic growth, with a relatively low ratio of exports to GDP, lower risk of potential trade conflicts, and a tendency to focus on service exports without relying on technology for strong profits," he added.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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