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光伏行业转折点来了?多家组件厂商称价格“随行就市” 业内人士呼吁减产

Has the turning point arrived for the photovoltaic industry? Several component manufacturers claim prices are "market-oriented", industry insiders are calling for production reduction.

cls.cn ·  Oct 30 08:47

①The price trend of photovoltaic module manufacturers' products seems to be emerging in response to the closely related initiative proposed by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association; ②Industry insiders believe that in the current situation of oversupply of equally high-quality and efficient products, leading companies need to adjust their shipment plans, control production loads, and not engage in low-cost bidding wars below costs.

On October 30, following the "anti-internal circulation" symposium, multiple photovoltaic module manufacturers were exposed to price increases as reported by the Star Market Daily.

There are market reports that starting from October 29, Longi Green Energy's photovoltaic module prices have increased by 1-2 cents/watt, with Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co.,Ltd., and JA Solar Technology among other leading component companies adjusting their shipment prices by 1-3 cents/watt.

Regarding the above news, a relevant person from Longi Green Energy responded to the Star Market Daily reporter today (October 30), saying, "Component prices will be adjusted according to market conditions."

JinkoSolar stated to the Star Market Daily reporters, "Based on the consensus reached at the industry 'anti-internal circulation' meeting, companies are working together to gradually return industry chain prices to a reasonable range. The company actively responds and looks forward to the industry returning to a healthy development track as soon as possible."

JA Solar Technology informed the Star Market Daily reporters, "There have been slight adjustments in distribution channel prices in the market. We will closely monitor market dynamics and user demand, comprehensively consider market trends, costs, order situations, and continuously evaluate and dynamically adjust pricing strategies based on changes in the market environment."

According to ATES, they told the Star Market Daily reporters, "Please refer to market information for changes in photovoltaic module prices."

As of the time of publication, Trina Solar Co., Ltd. and Tongwei Co.,Ltd. have not yet responded to the relevant inquiries.

It is worth mentioning that on October 22nd, Zhongjing Energy opened the bid for the procurement agreement of 2.5GW N-type TOPCon double-sided modules for the 2024 photovoltaic framework. The average bid price for the project is 0.694 yuan/W, with a quoted range of 0.675-0.722 yuan/W. The minimum price is not lower than the lowest bid price previously announced by the association, and it has increased significantly compared to the mid-September quotes.

The rising trend of photovoltaic module manufacturers' product prices seems imminent and is closely related to the initiative proposed by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.

Not long ago, on October 14th, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a special symposium on preventing industry 'cannibalistic' vicious competition. Companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar Technology, Trina Solar Co., Ltd., Tongwei Co., Ltd., and others participated. Business leaders and representatives fully communicated and reached a consensus on 'strengthening industry self-discipline, preventing 'cannibalistic' vicious competition, strengthening the market survival of the fittest mechanism, and providing channels for the exit of backward and inefficient production capacity' for the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

On October 18th, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association released an article titled 'Current cost analysis of photovoltaic modules: bidding below cost suspected of illegal!' and mentioned that the 'reference price' for photovoltaic modules in October 2024 is 0.68 yuan/W, stating that it is the lowest cost for excellent companies in the industry to guarantee product quality. It stated that according to the 'Implementation Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Tendering and Bidding Law,' the winning bid contract must be higher than the cost.

'0.68 yuan/W is just a minimum price, and it is just to control (related prices) from further decline. Companies need to control their own load to rebound, improve supply-demand relations. This price of 0.68 yuan/W does not include silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, component end depreciation, and three expenses, only covering cash costs.' Secretary-General Lv Jinbiao of the SEMI China Photovoltaic Standard Committee told the 'Star Daily' reporter.

Lv Jinbiao further analyzed that 'under the current situation of oversupply of equally high-quality and efficient product supply, leading companies still need to adjust their shipment plans, control production loads, not bid below cost, not blindly pursue low-price bids to achieve shipping volume rankings continuously, and avoid causing losses to enlarge.'

According to the data from the Silicon Branch on October 24th, the overall price of silicon wafers dropped this week mainly due to insufficient downstream demand. This round of price reduction started with battery components, and the stalemate game between the upstream and downstream of the silicon wafer link lasted for more than two weeks, finally ending with a significant reduction in production in the battery sector, transmitting back to the silicon wafer end with reduced production and lower prices. This week, the price of battery components dropped again, with the transaction price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon solar cells dropping to 0.265 yuan/W, and the price of 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules dropping to 0.68 yuan/W.

In response, the Silicon Branch expressed that although the price of battery components fell this week, the overall transaction price concentration indicates that it is nearing the bottom. Positive news related to the photovoltaic industry has been frequent recently, driving the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry back to a normal track through supply-side structural reforms. Based on the above situation, downstream battery companies are considering large-scale bottom fishing, and there is little possibility of continued consecutive declines in silicon wafer prices in the short term.

"Currently, every link in the photovoltaic industry chain is in surplus, all selling below cash cost price, supply is not being compressed, prices cannot rebound, and increasing losses are inevitable." Lu Jinbiao, Secretary-General of the SEMI China Photovoltaic Standards Committee, believes that there is an opportunity for adjustment in the silicon material link. In the fourth quarter, Sichuan and Yunnan will enter the dry season, with over 600,000 tons of capacity unable to enjoy preferential electricity prices, increasing the cost by 0.005-0.01 million yuan/ton. "Head enterprises need to consider reducing the load to maintain cash flow, which is beneficial for reducing supply, digesting inventory, and bringing about a price rebound."

Lu Jinbiao stated, "I believe that leading enterprises will proactively reduce the load in the future, control the pace of supply, and allow prices to return to rationality. Currently, the top 10 component enterprises account for over 85% of the total shipments. These enterprises will not bid at low prices first, not lower than the cost price, which may stabilize market expectations."

"For the healthy and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry, product sales prices need to be higher than the total cost for companies to operate sustainably. Photovoltaic components are products that need to run stably for 20-25 years. Compared to price, quality is the most critical consideration." according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.

CITIC Securities recently analyzed in a research report that the Photovoltaic Industry Association's initiative to prevent "hollowing out" is expected to promote the long-term healthy development of the industry. The domestic photovoltaic power generation and newly added installed capacity data from January to September are significantly higher than the national average level of the electricity industry. Against the backdrop of the continuous construction of large wind and solar bases, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter.

("Star Market Daily" reporter Qiu Siyu also contributed to this article)

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