We Think Reynolds Consumer Products (NASDAQ:REYN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Reynolds Consumer Products (NASDAQ:REYN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (NASDAQ:REYN) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍華德·馬克斯(Howard Marks)表達得很好,他說,與其擔心股價波動,'我擔心的是永久性損失的可能性...我認識的每一個實際投資者都擔心這個。'因此,聰明的投資者似乎知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估一家公司風險的一個非常重要因素。值得注意的是,雷諾斯消費品公司(納斯達克:REYN)確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務產生了多大風險?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務能夠在企業缺乏新資本或自由現金流的情況下提供幫助。在最壞的情況下,公司無法支付其債權人的情況下可能會破產。但是,更常見的情況是,公司需要以較低的價格籌集新的股本資本,從而永久地稀釋股東的權益。然而,在替代稀釋的情況下,債務可以是一種極好的工具,可爲需要在高回報率下進行成長投資的企業提供資本。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Reynolds Consumer Products's Debt?
雷諾斯消費品的債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Reynolds Consumer Products had US$1.78b of debt in June 2024, down from US$2.08b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$127.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.66b.
您可以單擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但顯示雷諾斯消費品在2024年6月的債務爲17.8億美元,低於一年前的20.8億美元。另一方面,它擁有12700萬美元的現金,導致淨債務約爲16.6億美元。
How Strong Is Reynolds Consumer Products' Balance Sheet?
雷諾茲消費品業務的資產負債表有多堅實?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Reynolds Consumer Products had liabilities of US$523.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$2.30b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$127.0m and US$383.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$2.32b.
深入研究最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到雷諾茲消費品業務在12個月內到期的負債爲52300萬美元,而12個月後到期的負債爲23億美元。另一方面,其現金爲12700萬美元,應收賬款爲38300萬美元。因此,其負債超過了其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和23.2億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Reynolds Consumer Products is worth US$6.26b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
這個赤字並不算太糟糕,因爲雷諾茲消費品業務價值爲62.6億美元,因此可能可以籌集足夠的資金來鞏固其資產負債表,如果有需要的話。但很明顯,我們絕對需要仔細調查它是否能夠管理其債務而不進行股份稀釋。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通過查看公司的淨債務與利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息費用(利息覆蓋率)可以衡量一個公司的債務負擔與收益能力。因此,我們考慮將債務與有無計算折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對比。
Reynolds Consumer Products has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 5.3 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Importantly, Reynolds Consumer Products grew its EBIT by 37% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Reynolds Consumer Products's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
雷諾茲消費品業務的淨債務價值爲EBITDA的2.4倍,這並不算太多,但其利息盈利覆蓋看起來有點偏低,EBIt只有利息費用的5.3倍。雖然這些數字並沒有引起我們的警惕,但值得注意的是公司負債成本確實產生了實質影響。重要的是,雷諾茲消費品業務在過去12個月內將其EBIt增長了37%,而這種增長將使其更容易應對債務。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解最多關於債務。但更重要的是,未來的盈利將決定雷諾茲消費品業務能否保持健康的資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看該免費報告,顯示分析師的盈利預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Reynolds Consumer Products recorded free cash flow worth 70% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用虛擬利潤來償還債務;它需要現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIt中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在最近的三年中,雷諾茲消費品業務錄得的自由現金流價值爲其EBIt的70%,這是正常的,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅費。這筆硬通貨意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Reynolds Consumer Products's EBIT growth rate suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Reynolds Consumer Products is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Reynolds Consumer Products you should be aware of.
Reynolds Consumer Products的EBIt增長率表明它可以像Cristiano Ronaldo對付一名14歲以下門將一樣輕鬆處理債務。 這只是好消息的開始,因爲其將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的能力也非常令人振奮。 當我們考慮以上一系列因素時,Reynolds Consumer Products在債務使用上似乎非常明智。 儘管會帶來一些風險,但也可以增強股東的回報。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多關於債務。 但,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表之內 - 遠非如此。 例如:我們發現Reynolds Consumer Products存在3個警示信號,您應該注意。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
當一切塵埃落定時,有時更容易專注於那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費查看零淨債務的成長股列表。
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