Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. (SHSE:603096) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues were CN¥186m, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥0.98 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Thinkingdom Media Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥1.04b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 15% to CN¥1.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.18 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 11% to CN¥21.12following these changes. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Thinkingdom Media Group at CN¥25.53 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥17.85. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Thinkingdom Media Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Thinkingdom Media Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Thinkingdom Media Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Thinkingdom Media Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Thinkingdom Media Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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