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Earnings Report: China Film Co., Ltd. Missed Revenue Estimates By 21%

Earnings Report: China Film Co., Ltd. Missed Revenue Estimates By 21%

收益报告:中国电影股份有限公司营业收入低于预期21%
Simply Wall St ·  10/30 19:10

The third-quarter results for China Film Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600977) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were CN¥893m, 21% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of CN¥0.14 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

中国电影股份有限公司(SHSE:600977)第三季度业绩上周发布,现在是重新审视其表现的好时机。营业收入为人民币89300万,比分析师预期的21%低,尽管每股盈利为人民币0.14,与预期基本一致。分析师通常会在每次盈利报告后更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估算中判断,他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何需要注意的新问题。因此,我们收集了最新的盈利后预测,看看预估暗示着未来一年会发生什么。

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SHSE:600977 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 30th 2024
SHSE:600977 2024年10月30日盈利和营收增长

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Film from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥6.35b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 53% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 11,159% to CN¥0.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥6.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.50 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

考虑到最新的业绩,来自五位分析师的中国电影最新共识是2025年营收为人民币63.5亿。如果实现,将意味着过去12个月营收大幅增长53%。每股盈利预计将大幅增长11,159%,达到人民币0.46。然而,在最新盈利之前,分析师曾预期2025年的营收为人民币66.8亿,每股收益(EPS)为人民币0.50。很明显,悲观情绪在最新业绩后出现,导致营收前景的疲软以及每股盈利预期的小幅下滑。

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 8.4% to CN¥10.81, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Film at CN¥13.34 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥6.20. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

最出人意料的是,共识价格目标上涨8.4%,达到人民币10.81,强烈暗示预测的下调不会超过暂时的小幅下滑。然而,还有另一种看待价格目标的方式,那就是查看分析师提出的价格目标范围,因为广泛的估算范围可能意味着对业务可能结果的看法多样化。目前,最看好的分析师认为中国电影每股价值人民币13.34,而最看淡的则为人民币6.20。注意分析师价格目标的巨大差距?这向我们暗示着潜在业务的可能情景范围是相当广泛的。

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that China Film is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 41% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 10% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 14% annually. So it looks like China Film is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

通过比较预测结果与过去表现以及同行业其他公司的表现,可以更好地了解这些预测的背景。这些预测中有一个显著的特点,即中国电影公司未来的增长预期将比过去快,预计到2025年底,营业收入将以41%的年增长率增长。如果实现,这将比过去五年的10%年度下降要好得多。与分析师对更广泛行业板块的估计相比较,他们认为(总体而言)行业营业收入预计每年增长14%。因此,中国电影公司预计未来增长速度将快于其竞争对手,至少在一段时间内。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

最重要的一点是,分析师调低了他们对每股收益的预期,表明随着这些结果的公布,市场情绪明显下降。不幸的是,他们还下调了营业收入的预期,但最新的预测仍意味着该企业将比更广泛的行业增长更快。此外,价格目标也有不错的增长,分析师明显认为该企业的内在价值正在提高。

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Film going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

延续这种思路,我们认为业务的长期前景比明年的收益更加重要。在Simply Wall St,我们对中国电影公司延伸至2026年的分析师估计有全面的覆盖,您可以免费在我们的平台上查看。

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for China Film you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

不过,您应始终考虑风险。一个案例是,我们发现了中国电影公司的3个警示信号,您应该注意,其中1个可能严重。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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