Last week, you might have seen that Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603866) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to CN¥6.07 in the past week. Revenues were CN¥1.6b, 18% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CN¥0.36 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Toly BreadLtd's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥7.00b in 2025. This reflects a notable 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 19% to CN¥0.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥7.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.41 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥7.50, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Toly BreadLtd's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.7% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Toly BreadLtd is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toly BreadLtd's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥7.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toly BreadLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Toly BreadLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.