With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.2x Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603650) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 34x and even P/E's lower than 20x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Red Avenue New Materials Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Red Avenue New Materials Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 19% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 36% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 30% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 40% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it concerning that Red Avenue New Materials Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Red Avenue New Materials Group's P/E
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Red Avenue New Materials Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Having said that, be aware Red Avenue New Materials Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
