Talking about stocks and gold, discussing everything under the sun. Hello, I am Gelon. Today, let's talk about the upcoming U.S. election and the significant risks facing Tesla.

On October 24th, Beijing time, Tesla produced its 7 millionth car at the Fremont factory and announced its third-quarter performance on the same day, delivering the best ever results. They also released the FSD supervised 12.5 version in the field of artificial intelligence, unveiled two cars named cybercab and Robovan designed for autonomous driving at the WeRobot event in October, produced the first billionth 4680 battery, and SpaceX completed its 100th rocket launch of the year.

Under Musk's umbrella of companies, with remarkable achievements, Tesla's stock surged by 21.92% in a day, and its market cap increased by one trillion (the accurate number is 1073.3 billion) yuan.

What does this mean? It means that in just one day, the increase in Tesla's stock price equals the market cap of one Contemporary Amperex Technology, 1.2 Ping An Insurance, 1.4 BYD Company Limited, and 1.8 Xiaomi.

In the 14 years since its IPO, Tesla has increased by 228 times, with an annualized growth rate of 47.4%, which is considered terrifying.

Is this the dream white knight in every investor's mind?

In fact, almost all funds investing in US stocks will consistently consider Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia as beauty7, and list them as essential components of the portfolio.

However, the situation is changing.

The market funds still unanimously agree on the other 6 of beauty7. However, an increasing amount of funds are starting to diverge in their attitudes towards Tesla. To what extent has this disagreement reached? As far as I know, a considerable amount of funds are not just reducing their Tesla holdings, but are starting to try to establish short positions in Tesla.

It is not a lack of trust in Tesla's team's technological innovation capabilities or an extraordinary distrust in Musk's commercial abilities and instincts. The fundamental reason is Musk's heavy involvement in American bipartisan politics, US elections, with almost no room for retreat, and a near all-in commitment.

Musk has been too involved in politics, with too much emphasis on Trump. He no longer resembles an entrepreneur but more like a stock market gambler leveraging tenfold.

Those who pay a little attention to US elections know that Trump, representing the Republican Party, is old, full of roguish qualities. He, who represents the Democratic Party, does not possess precious morals, but is full of deceit. For a superpower to only be able to produce these two second-rate candidates, causing such a huge commotion throughout society, even with swords drawn and loaded guns, indicates that the United States is indeed in decline, and society in the US is effectively divided.

In times of sensitive social division and party strife like this, an entrepreneur really has no need to wade into such troubled waters. Just focus on doing your business well. The United States is a pure market economy; businessmen, do your business well, and power will not actively come looking for trouble with you. Similarly, like most American billionaires, such as Buffett, Zuckerberg, keep silent in elections and even the Washington Post, which has long supported the Democratic Party, has remained neutral in this year's election at the request of the big boss Bezos, staunchly refusing to take sides.

Musk is an exception. He almost goes all out to help Trump. If you were not aware from the start, you would surely think that Musk, not Trump, is the one competing with He Jinli for the presidential throne.

How deeply involved is Musk in supporting Trump's election campaign? You can understand that he has put all his wealth on the line, All in for Trump.

In addition to posting a large number of pro-Trump statements on his social platform X, calling on voters to support Trump, on October 5, with a month to go before the nationwide voting day in the U.S. presidential election, Musk made a physical appearance and took the stage at Trump's campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, wearing a golden MAGA (Make America Great Again) cap, jumping and proclaiming Trump as the only savior of America. It is worth noting that Pennsylvania is the largest swing state in the U.S. with 19 electoral votes and historically, the winner of Pennsylvania tends to win the entire election, making it the location where Trump survived an assassination attempt in July this year. Musk's high-profile support has also set a record of the first public endorsement of a presidential candidate by an American billionaire.

To support Trump, Musk took on the enormous risk of illegal campaign contributions by directly mobilizing cash in seven swing states. Firstly, in these seven states, any voter who signs a petition supporting certain views of Trump will receive $47 from Musk, and if successful in getting people to sign the petition, an additional $47 will be given to you; secondly, from October 19 to November 5, Musk will randomly select one voter each day to award a $1 million grand prize, equivalent to 7.13 million yuan, totaling $18 million.

Such an intense and unconventional support indicates Musk deeply involving himself in politics, opposing the Democratic Party representing the elite class, and possibly taking extreme measures. In his own words, if his bet on Trump fails, he is finished, facing endless imprisonment, not being able to see his children again, and possibly even facing revenge from others.

As for why Musk took these crazy actions, some people online jokingly suggest it's because Musk's eldest son underwent a gender transition, which he couldn't accept, and he deeply resents the Democratic Party supporting LGBT rights. This reason is too far-fetched. Musk is a high-quality man, professionally prolific, has no shortage of women or children. If he truly values feelings and loyalty to a woman and child, he wouldn't keep changing partners and having more children.

There are claims that Musk's business relies on government orders, and the Democratic government won't give him orders. This is not true because his company SPACEX received a series of major, groundbreaking government contracts during the Biden Democratic government's tenure.

As for the claim that Musk is anti-immigrant, this is even more far-fetched, because Musk himself was an illegal immigrant who stayed in the U.S. and established his first company, ZIP 2.

In fact, four years ago, Musk was a staunch supporter of the Democratic Party and had a fierce rivalry with Trump. Nobody really understands why the usually intelligent Musk made a 180-degree turn this time, fully supporting the Republican Trump and taking such a path with no turning back.

The network spread a video of Musk that was terrifying, as he said: 'I certainly can't fall behind. Gates has pledged 50 million to support He Jinli. If He Jinli wins, she will definitely settle accounts later. I will do whatever it takes to stand with Trump, even if it means losing everything. If I lose, I will hand over Starlink to Russia and I'm done!'

From this statement, you can't see his political savvy at all. On the contrary, Musk's extreme political immaturity is highlighted. Since inexplicably getting involved in the U.S. election and deciding to support Trump, Musk has pushed himself onto an unnecessary single-plank bridge. It seems like he's headed straight for a dead end. In fact, he could have followed the example of Zuckerberg and Buffett, not taking sides politically, leaving Trump and He Jinli to face off, and focusing on his own tech entrepreneurship.

How dark American politics are, Musk should be very clear, otherwise, he wouldn't repeatedly say that if Trump loses, he's done. Nor would he angrily make threatening remarks like: 'If Trump loses, I will hand over Starlink to Russia and I'm done.' There were rumors that he had regular exchanges with Putin and shut down Starlink over Taiwan, which still needs to be verified. But all of this is enough to make all Americans and the U.S. government, which provides massive contracts, break out in a cold sweat. In fact, the head of NASA has already started calling for an investigation into Musk's talks with Putin.

From Musk's sudden public posts, asking why no one is assassinating Biden and He Jinli, to now saying that if Trump loses, he will hand over Starlink to Russia, openly accusing Bill Gates of being involved in the Lolita Island incident, every mindless statement is attracting more and stronger enemies. It should be noted that what he is involved in is not child's play, but a huge political struggle. Trump is not worth Musk risking his entire fortune to support. One of the core reasons Trump was elected last time is that people thought there were a bunch of rogues in the world who needed someone like him, who doesn't play by the rules, to clean up. Afterwards, everyone realized that Trump himself is a full-fledged rogue, and whether the people will vote for him again is now in doubt.

Even if Trump is actually elected, it's hard to say whether he can fulfill his promises to Musk, not to mention he only has a four-year term, how many promises can he fulfill? Trump is full of rogue attributes, he and Musk are not on the same page at all. Trump is now doing everything in his power to campaign, just to gain presidential immunity, to spend the rest of his life not in prison. This is his only way out, he must go all-in.

As for what Musk and Tesla will face if Trump loses, that is really up to the gods.

At least for now, the Biden administration has imposed strong regulations on various businesses under Musk's company. According to statistics, Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink (brain-computer interface), and X are facing investigations and lawsuits from five departments in the USA, including the Department of Transportation, Department of Justice, Department of Labor, Department of the Interior, and Department of Agriculture, as well as oversight and investigations from many independent institutions.

The reason why Tesla is a legendary stock is largely due to Musk's various unconventional and daring moves. From the perspective of bystanders, everything he does indeed involves an element of risk-taking. Just like this time betting heavily on Trump. Musk's previous ventures were actually big gambles, and he was lucky enough to win. This time, he just shifted from his original business-dependent path to the political arena.

However, this transition is actually unnecessary and entails extremely high risks.

"House of Cards" has a saying: Power is like a drug, as well as a poison, it can backfire. Trump's political promises may allow Musk to approach the core of power and become a super billionaire. But at the same time, this no-retreat gamble will also make Musk's companies dance on the edge of a knife.

We hope that Trump can be re-elected on November 6th, so that Tesla may still have a certain probability of maintaining its extraordinary stock status.

Otherwise, you may really need to prepare to short Tesla.

I am Glon. Follow me and be a clear-minded person. Although being too clear-minded sometimes comes with a lot of trouble, I assure you that the consequences of drifting along aimlessly and carelessly will definitely be greater. (End of the full text)