行业：10月楼市反弹明显，政策“组合拳”持续为市场注入信心。从日频跟踪来看，10月楼市反弹明显。截至2024年10月27日，30城新建商品房当年累计成交7357万㎡，同比-30%；其中，北京、上海、广州、深圳新建商品房成交面积累计同比分别为-28%、-27%、-14%、-13%；一线城市、二线城市、三线城市新建商品房成交面积累计同比分别为-23%、-35%、-28%。There was a clear rebound in the property market in October. Subsequent interpretations of the real estate sector will depend on the progress of implementation of relevant policies and whether the fundamental rebound continues.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that since the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee at the end of September emphasized the need to stop the decline and stabilize the real estate market, the press conference of the State Information Office in October once again introduced an incremental real estate policy, effectively boosting market confidence. There was a clear rebound in the property market in October. Subsequent interpretations of the real estate sector will depend on the progress of implementation of relevant policies and whether the fundamental rebound continues. Although from the perspective of the value of housing enterprises, fundamentals cannot support the trending market in the real estate sector until housing prices stop falling and the industry actually recovers. However, from a policy game perspective, the weaker the current fundamentals and the average effects of past policies, the stronger the expectations that major policies will be introduced, and the game market will continue to exist. In November, we recommended Poly Development (600048.SH) and China Overseas Development (00688).
The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Industry: The property market rebounded clearly in October, and the policy “combo punch” continued to inject confidence into the market. Judging from daily frequency tracking, there was a clear rebound in the property market in October. As of October 27, 2024, the cumulative transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 30 cities was 73.57 million square meters, or -30%; among them, the cumulative transaction area of newly built commercial housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was -28%, -27%, -14%, and -13%, respectively; the cumulative transaction area of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities, second-tier cities, and third-tier cities was -23%, -35%, and -28%, respectively.
Judging from daily tracking, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities was significantly higher than in previous years. As of October 27, 2024, the cumulative number of second-hand residential units sold in 18 cities was 0.604 million units, -0.1% year-on-year; among them, the cumulative number of second-hand housing units sold in Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu in the same year was +2%, +50%, +19%, and -6%, respectively; the cumulative number of second-hand residential units sold in first-tier cities, second-tier cities, and third-tier cities in the same year was +10%, -4%, and -3%, respectively.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in September, the sales area of commercial housing was -11.0% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.6 percentage points narrower than in August. Looking at the sales scale compared to the same period in history, the monthly sales volume and sales area of commercial housing in September were equivalent to 57% and 56% of the same period in 2019, respectively. They were still at a low level, but improved from 52% and 49% month-on-month in August.
Sector: It outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 11.0 percentage points this month, ranking 13th out of 31 industries. According to Wind's unanimous expectations, according to the latest closing date, the sector's dynamic PE in 2024 was 32.8 times, close to the high valuation point of the 2023 sector (34.0 times).
Risk warning: The effects of policy implementation fell short of expectations, the decline in industry fundamentals exceeded expectations, and the impact of credit risk incidents on housing enterprises exceeded expectations.
