Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000538) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd missed earnings this time around, with CN¥9.5b revenue coming in 2.4% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.63 also fell short of expectations by 17%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd are now predicting revenues of CN¥44.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 18% to CN¥2.85. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥44.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.83 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥66.51. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd at CN¥73.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥54.20. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.8% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥66.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd that you should be aware of.

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