Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Viva Goods Company Limited (HKG:933) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Viva Goods Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Viva Goods had debt of HK$917.1m, up from HK$803.5m in one year. But it also has HK$1.42b in cash to offset that, meaning it has HK$504.0m net cash.
How Strong Is Viva Goods' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Viva Goods had liabilities of HK$3.62b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$2.25b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$1.42b as well as receivables valued at HK$819.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$3.63b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of HK$5.45b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Viva Goods' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Viva Goods boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load! There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Viva Goods will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Over 12 months, Viva Goods made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to HK$11b, which is a fall of 6.2%. That's not what we would hope to see.
So How Risky Is Viva Goods?
Although Viva Goods had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last twelve months, it generated positive free cash flow of HK$507m. So although it is loss-making, it doesn't seem to have too much near-term balance sheet risk, keeping in mind the net cash. Until we see some positive EBIT, we're a bit cautious of the stock, not least because of the rather modest revenue growth. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Viva Goods , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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