The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:600998), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥36b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 18%, coming in at just CN¥0.09 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jointown Pharmaceutical Group from six analysts is for revenues of CN¥178.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 26% to CN¥0.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥179.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.53 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥7.38, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Jointown Pharmaceutical Group analyst has a price target of CN¥10.26 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥3.80. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Jointown Pharmaceutical Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Jointown Pharmaceutical Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jointown Pharmaceutical Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jointown Pharmaceutical Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jointown Pharmaceutical Group .

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