China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:601098) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.8% to CN¥12.10 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥2.5b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥1.03 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, China South Publishing & Media Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥15.4b in 2025. This would be a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 4.4% to CN¥0.84 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥15.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.85 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at CN¥14.85even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China South Publishing & Media Group at CN¥15.80 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥13.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting China South Publishing & Media Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.6% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.3% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. China South Publishing & Media Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China South Publishing & Media Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.