消息人士还补充称，预计此次袭击将从伊拉克发动，并使用大量无人机和弹道导弹，而从伊拉克领土上发动袭击可能是因为伊朗希望避免以色列再次袭击伊朗的战略目标。①According to sources, Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran will launch attacks against Israel through its agents in Iraq, expected before the US election; ②The international oil market is once again rising due to this news. After the settlement on Thursday, WTI futures prices rose by more than 3%, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose by over 2%.
Financial Association News on November 1st (Editor Malan): Since October, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, exacerbating concerns in the market about further deterioration in Middle Eastern geopolitical situations.
According to two Israeli sources, intelligence obtained by Israel shows that Iran is preparing to launch attacks against Israel through pro-Iranian organizations inside Iraq in the coming days, with the operation expected to take place before the US election on November 5.
The sources also added that this attack is expected to be launched from Iraq, using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles. Launching the attack from Iraqi territory may be because Iran hopes to avoid Israel targeting Iranian strategic objectives again.
On Thursday, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami stated that Israel's decision to attack Iran last week was a mistake, and Iran's response will be different from any scenario Israel may anticipate.
Mohammed Mohammadi Golpayegani, the Chief of Staff to Iran's top leader, emphasized on Thursday that Iran may retaliate, and the response will be very strong, making Israel regret the attack last week.
Oil market begins to fluctuate
Three weeks ago, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, but due to US and other countries' intervention, Israel did not respond immediately until last week when multiple rounds of airstrikes were carried out on Iran's military infrastructure and defense systems.
However, Israel's attack on Iran was milder than market expectations, as it did not target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil fields, which relieved the international community including Western governments. But as of now, this relief may have come too early.
After the news of Iran launching an attack on Israel before the US election spread, the international oil market experienced fluctuations again. After the futures market settled on Thursday, WTI crude oil prices continued to rise by 3.13% to $70.76 per barrel. Brent crude oil January futures also rose by 2.91% to $74.26 per barrel.
Previously, due to Israel's relatively restrained retaliation, international oil prices plummeted at the beginning of this week, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropping by over 6%.
Senior analyst Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group stated that this indicates Israel could still retaliate against Iran again, and Iran's crude oil facilities remain at risk. As a member of the OPEC organization, Iran's daily production capacity of crude oil is 3.2 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global output.
Rystad Energy pointed out that several significant international events will occur early this month - the US election, China's demand outlook, OPEC's actions, and the Middle East conflicts, making it inevitable that the oil market in early November will be turbulent.
