招商证券指出，截至10月24日周四，SMM全国铜社会库存较上周四去库0.96万吨至21.96万吨。铜价回调不大，对现货消费刺激有限。进口铜近期估计到货量较多，预计铜库存比较难明显下降，国内铜消费再度表现出来旺季不旺。LME库存下降0.8万吨，COMEX库存增加0.7万吨。本周SMM铜线缆企业开工率为76.56%，环比下降0.37个百分点，9月中旬以来持续下降。进入明年铜精矿长单谈判期，明年铜精矿供应紧张明确。宏观情绪转暖，预计对铜价有较强支撑。Copper stocks picked up in early trading. As of press release, Minmetals Resources (01208) rose 7.69% to HK$2.94; China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose 5.23% to HK$5.83; Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose 4.89% to HK$13.74; and Zijin Mining (02899) rose 2.65% to HK$17.02.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that copper stocks picked up in early trading. As of press release, Minmetals Resources (01208) rose 7.69% to HK$2.94; China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose 5.23% to HK$5.83; Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose 4.89% to HK$13.74; and Zijin Mining (02899) rose 2.65% to HK$17.02.
Zhongtai Securities said that the peak season is coming to an end, and the market is waiting for more incremental countercyclical policies to be introduced. Apart from the cost support of electrolytic aluminum, prices of other commodities are weakening overall. In the context of the reshaping of the long-term supply and demand pattern, there is limited room for further decline in commodity prices. With the simultaneous shift in domestic and foreign policies, the industry is expected to usher in an upward boom cycle.
According to China Merchants Securities, as of Thursday, October 24, SMM's national copper inventory was 0.0096 million tons to 0.2196 million tons compared to last Thursday. Copper prices have not recovered much, and the stimulus to spot consumption is limited. Imported copper is estimated to have arrived a lot recently. It is expected that copper stocks will be difficult to drop significantly, and domestic copper consumption is once again showing that the peak season is not strong. LME inventories fell 0.008 million tons, and COMEX inventories increased 0.007 million tons. The operating rate of SMM copper cable companies this week was 76.56%, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous month, and has continued to decline since mid-September. Entering the negotiation period for next year's long order for copper concentrate, it is clear that next year's copper concentrate supply will be tight. Macro sentiment is warming, and it is expected that there will be strong support for copper prices.
