报告认为这是淘天集团长期在商家端和用户端的投入带来的成果。以双11为例，报告预计淘宝天猫在双 11 的投资将比其他同行更激进，包括在 88VIP、对消费者的激励以及对商家的支持(流量、退货)等多个领域进行了投资。Recently, Wall Street investment bank Jefferies Financial released a special report on the november 11 shopping festival, believing that the online shopping sentiment in September has improved, with all platforms implementing simple and direct discounts for november 11, and a trend of merchants returning to e-commerce shelves.
The report cites industry experts' views that compared to a few years ago, influencer live streaming e-commerce no longer has the same momentum as before, because merchants are more focused on profitability and product return rates, and the product return rate of e-commerce shelves is better than live streaming e-commerce.
Regarding Taotian Group, the report determines that "merchants are returning to Taobao and Tmall from other platforms", this year, the number of new Taotian merchants is growing rapidly, with a 70% increase in the registration of new brands on Tmall in September compared to the previous quarter.
The report believes that this is the result of Taotian Group's long-term investment on the merchant and user sides. Taking november 11 as an example, the report predicts that Taobao and Tmall's investment in the november 11 will be more aggressive than other peers, including investments in 88VIP, incentives for consumers, and support for merchants (traffic, returns), among other areas.
The report's analysis indicates that pre-sales for the november 11 festival are very important because they give merchants more preparation time. In terms of incentives, the platform provides incentives to merchants for every 300/200 yuan spent on Tmall/Taobao, as well as a 10 billion yuan channel subsidy. In addition, Taotian provides merchants with multiple support measures such as ai tools, commission exemptions, and reduced return costs.
Jefferies Financial is also bullish on the potential increase in users brought by opening WeChat Pay. The report cites QuestMobile data to emphasize the synergistic effect with WeChat, which will release 0.245 billion potential user base, about 0.19 billion of which are online shoppers (77.5% of the total), with approximately 86 million high-frequency consumer groups. On the other hand, the report believes that the growth of Taobao 88VIP users is also worth looking forward to, achieving double-digit growth in the June quarter and the total number of users has exceeded 42 million.
