The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the third quarter of 2024, Cinda Securities released a research report saying that in the third quarter of 2024, the total express delivery business volume of the industry was 43.609 billion units, +20.1% compared to the same period. The growth rate of leading express delivery companies was higher than the industry average, and single ticket profits were stable overall. The express delivery industry's business volume is expected to grow at around 20% in 2024, and leading companies may have excessive growth. Combined with the arrival of peak season, single ticket profits or steady increases, leading companies' profits are expected to maintain a considerable growth rate.

The main views of Cinda Securities are as follows:

Incident: Yuantong Express, Yunda Co., Ltd., and Shentong Express released their 2024 three-quarter quarterly reports. Net profit of 0.943, 0.367, and 0.215 billion yuan was achieved in 24Q3, respectively, +18.1%, +24.2%, and +7760.9% year-on-year respectively.

The volume of the industry maintained high growth in the third quarter, and the leading growth rate was higher than the industry average

In the third quarter of 2024, the total express delivery business volume of the industry was 43.609 billion units, +20.1% year on year. The growth rate fell 1.2 pct from the second quarter, mainly due to base factors; the average daily order volume in the third quarter was 0.474 billion units, up 0.2% from the second quarter. Looking at the branch, Yuantong Express's 24Q3 express delivery business volume was 6.711 billion units, +28.1% year over year; Yunda Co., Ltd.'s 24Q3 express delivery business volume was 6.019 billion units, +23.7% year over year; Shentong Express 24Q3 express delivery business volume was 5.883 billion units, +27.9% year over year.

The overall profit of the leading single ticket was stable in the third quarter

Cinda Securities believes that, on the one hand, as leading express delivery companies' single ticket costs are still being further optimized, leading express delivery companies will have more flexible unit price adjustment capabilities based on the decline in single ticket costs. On the other hand, benefiting from the industry's backlash and easing price competition, corporate single-ticket profits are still expected to remain steady or increase upward.

Looking at the branch: Yuantong Express 24Q3 single ticket revenue was 2.20 yuan, -5.8% month-on-month, Q2-2.8%, consolidated single ticket net profit 0.14 yuan, -7.9%; Yunda Co., Ltd. 24Q3 express ticket revenue was 1.99 yuan, -10.4% YoY, Q2-1.6% month-on-month, net profit per ticket 0.06 yuan, +0.4% year-on-year; Shentong Express 24Q3 express single ticket revenue 2.01 yuan, year-on-year -5.2%, month-on-month Q 2-0.6%, single ticket net profit 0.04 to mother Yuan, +6043.8% YoY.

Order volume remains relatively high, single ticket profits are steady, and prices are expected to continue to rise during peak season. Courier companies' Q4 profits are expected to maintain a relatively impressive growth rate

In terms of unit volume: The expansion and growth rate of e-commerce express delivery volume is still growing. In the context of the further rise of live e-commerce, on the one hand, the penetration rate of online shopping consumption has further increased. On the other hand, the decline and fragmentation of online shopping consumption behavior has driven the decline in online purchases of physical products with single express packages. The express delivery industry still has excessive growth compared to upstream e-commerce.

Single ticket profit side: The single ticket cost side is still expected to be further optimized driven by scale effects, asset replacement, management improvements, or increased penetration rate of unmanned terminal fulfillment. The single ticket price side takes into account factors such as policy supervision support, tight production capacity of leading companies and emphasis on development quality, and a shift in the strategic focus of new entrants, so even if companies reduce part of the cost side of a single ticket to the front end, it is expected to lead to steady growth in single ticket profit.

The express delivery industry's business volume is expected to grow at around 20% in 2024, and leading companies may have excessive growth. Combined with the arrival of peak season, single ticket profits or steady increases, leading companies' profits are still expected to maintain a considerable growth rate. Optimistic about leading valuation fixes, recommend Zhongtong Express - W (02057), Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ), Yuantong Express (600233.SH), and follow Shentong Express (002468.SZ).

Risk factors: Online shopping demand for physical products falls short of expectations; e-commerce express price competition worsens; terminal franchisee stability declines.