On October 30th, bitcoin failed to hit a new all-time high. After rising to above $73,600, it was only $100 away from $73,777. Unfortunately, the lack of follow-up funds led to continuous fluctuations and consolidation, ultimately slipping all the way down. By the evening of October 31st, BTC accelerated its decline, dropping to near $68,800 at one point and has now fallen back to around $69,500.

After rising above $2700, ETH also experienced a significant decline, dropping to around $2500, retracing the gains from the previous days. Altcoins showed a general decline.

In terms of contract data, liquidations amounted to $0.276 billion in 24 hours, with long liquidations at $0.247 billion.

Bitcoin failed to break the historical high, what are the reasons? How will the subsequent market trend?

Harris leads in the swing state support rate ahead of the US presidential election.

The upcoming US presidential election will officially begin on November 5th, often accompanied by significant market volatility in the days leading up.

Looking back at the BTC market on the 2020 US presidential election day, the crypto market saw a decline in the first two days, followed by an increase on the day of the election results announcement. The following two days saw another decline, followed by a continuous rise.

In addition, according to Forbes report, a recent poll shows Harris leading Trump by a slight 1% advantage. In seven key swing states that could decide the ultimate election winner, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%, a shift from a week ago where Trump led Harris 50% to 46%.

This change in numbers has further increased the uncertainty of the election results. After a low opening, the US stocks fell further, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks all experiencing a collective decline.

However, according to Polymarket data, Trump's probability of winning is significantly ahead of Harris.

Some funds, out of caution, choose to stand aside and wait quietly for the dust to settle on the US election results.

Future market trends

After Bitcoin halved in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the fourth quarter performancereturn on investmenthas been good, with returns of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02% respectively. The return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, the return rate in November 2020 was 42.95%, and this month's return rate is still worth looking forward to.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin rose by 7.35% in September this year, achieving its best historical performance. Historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has been able to rise until the end of the year.

Zhao Changpeng hints at a bull market coming in 2025.

During an interview at the main venue of the Dubai Binance Blockchain Week, Zhao Changpeng stated that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Looking back at history, Bitcoin has experienced a very clear four-year cycle. The years 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, in reality, 2012 was a 'recovery year,' but many people did not trace back that far. 2016 was also a 'recovery year,' and 2017 saw a continuous rise. 2020 was also a 'recovery year,' while 2021 was a bull market.

So based on the current analysis, 2024 should also be a 'recovery year.' As for what will happen next year, it is not clear, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very bullish.

Standard Chartered Bank analyst: A Trump victory will help Bitcoin reach $0.125 million before the end of the year.

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that before the U.S. presidential election on November 5th, the price of Bitcoin may experience a correction, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days. As traders choose to close positions for profit before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing the historical high above $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.

Geoff Kendrick further added that if the Republicans (Trump) win a full victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin's price will experience a greater degree of volatility. This could potentially lead Bitcoin to reach $0.125 million before the end of the year and trigger a new round of altcoin frenzy.