Today, spot gold surpassed $2750 per ounce, with a 0.22% increase during the day. The price of gold has hit a new high 39 times this year, continually exceeding analysts' expectations. UBS Group analysts predict that gold prices will reach $2800 per ounce by the end of the year and could even approach $3000 per ounce by the end of next year.

For current investment decisions, experts recommend making a comprehensive judgment based on one's position, financial situation, and investment style. Cautious investors can wait until after the US election to invest. When investing in gold, attention should be paid to channel risks, and it is advisable to choose channels for buying and selling gold that are smooth and secure. Experts also advise against speculative short-term trading in gold, suggesting not to treat buying gold as speculation or stock trading. It is recommended to invest in paper gold or gold futures instead of physical gold.

Gold prices may reach $2800 by the end of the year and have the potential to surpass $3000.

Ding Yueli, the Head of UBS China's Basic Materials Industry Research, recently stated that she expects gold prices to reach $2800 per ounce by the end of this year, with a chance of touching $3000 per ounce by the end of next year. At the same time, it is forecasted that the average gold price from 2024 to 2026 will rise to $2390/$2885/$2775 per ounce.

Why does UBS believe gold can steadily rise? Ding Yueli explained that factors driving the increase in gold prices include: the Federal Reserve and major central banks starting a rate-cutting cycle, a clear downward trend in real interest rates, pressure on the weakening US Dollar Index; ongoing geopolitical risks; market attention due to the approaching US election: further expansion of fiscal deficits, continuous increase in government debt size; overall low market positions: with significant room for increase, increasing institutional investment willingness; continued trend of central banks worldwide purchasing gold.

Gold prices have reached new highs this year. Some in the industry jokingly say, "The headlines can't keep up with the speed of gold hitting new highs." According to incomplete statistics, gold has hit a new high 39 times this year. What are the main driving factors behind the continuous rise in gold prices this year?

According to the World Gold Council's attribution model for gold price returns, "the most significant contribution to gold prices from the beginning of the year until now has been geopolitical risks; followed by investors' expectations of and momentum from global interest rate declines, reflected in inflows of gold ETFs, increased positions in COMEX gold futures, playing an important role," as stated by Jia Shuchang, Head of World Gold Council's China Research Department.

Jia Shuchang also stated that hedging exchange rate risks is one of the reasons investors choose gold. "According to a survey of 70 central banks worldwide in 2024, the main purpose of central banks increasing their gold holdings is because gold has no credit risk, is a long-term store of value, and has relatively high liquidity. In addition, as an internationally common currency, gold has a hedging effect on the exchange rate risk of a particular country, which is also a driving force for many institutional investors and individual investors to purchase gold".

Buying gold is not 'speculating on gold', investing in gold needs to pay attention to channel risks

Gold continues to hit historical highs, can investors still follow now? Cailianshe interviewed the opinions of many industry experts.

Zhao Qingming, Deputy Dean of the Foreign Exchange Bureau's Information Research Institute, stated that historically, the current gold price is severely overvalued, and for ordinary consumers, holding cash and observing is a very rational choice. Gold jewelry consumers are not advised to 'join in the fun' when the gold price is too high; Gold investors should always pay attention to risks.

"Investors should truly understand or believe in the investment value of gold, and its value in long-term asset allocation and risk protection. Buying gold should not be based on speculative psychology to gamble on short-term fluctuations. Ordinary investors can refer to expert analysis and interpretation to determine whether they have the determination and perseverance to make gold part of their asset portfolio", said Wang Lixin, CEO of the China region of the World Gold Council.

Should investors follow up on the current investment? China Best Gold analyst Wang Yi suggests that investors should make a comprehensive judgment based on positions, financial situation, and investment style. 'With the U.S. election imminent, cautious investors are advised to wait and see, and make a choice after the results are announced'.

What investment methods can investors choose? Zhao Qingming suggests choosing paper gold, gold futures, and avoiding physical gold as much as possible due to its high trading costs. Several experts remind investors to pay attention to channel risks and choose channels for gold investment that have smooth sales and repurchase channels and are guaranteed.

Wang Lixin reminds investors to fully understand the investment role of gold, not to treat investing in gold as 'speculating on gold' or 'speculating on stocks', and especially to pay attention to the authenticity of the channels for buying gold at high gold prices.

"Consumers should choose gold purchasing and selling channels that are as smooth as the repurchase channels, with appropriate intermediate prices, which is beneficial to safeguarding consumer interests. Also, pay attention to investment-type gold and try to keep it in your own hands as much as possible, instead of entrusting it or storing it due to promised benefits from the other party, which may create security risks," said Wang Yi.