Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600132), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues came in 5.6% below expectations, at CN¥4.2b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥0.89 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, Chongqing Brewery's 26 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥16.0b in 2025. This would be a solid 8.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 13% to CN¥3.10. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥16.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.14 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥67.60, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Chongqing Brewery, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥87.30 and the most bearish at CN¥51.98 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Chongqing Brewery's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Chongqing Brewery.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Chongqing Brewery's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥67.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chongqing Brewery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Chongqing Brewery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Chongqing Brewery that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.