As you might know, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002304) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥4.6b) coming in 41% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.41 fell 71% short. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥35.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to CN¥6.90. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.16 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥96.69, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery at CN¥145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥61.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
