Shareholders of Bona Film Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:001330) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to CN¥5.81 following its latest third-quarter results. Revenues came in at CN¥314m, an impressive 51% ahead of analyst forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Bona Film Group's three analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.23b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 159% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Bona Film Group forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.32 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥3.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.36 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥6.50 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Bona Film Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 114% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 20% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% per year. Not only are Bona Film Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bona Film Group. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bona Film Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Bona Film Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Bona Film Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.