Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600989) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥7.4b) coming in 28% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.17 fell 31% short. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥55.8b in 2025. This would be a huge 69% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 115% to CN¥1.84. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥57.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.87 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at CN¥21.57even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group at CN¥23.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥20.30. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 19% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥21.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group you should be aware of.

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