It's shaping up to be a tough period for Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002812), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥2.7b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 29%, coming in at just CN¥0.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yunnan Energy New Material's 16 analysts is for revenues of CN¥13.7b in 2025. This would reflect a major 31% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 65% to CN¥1.39. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥14.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.79 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥33.57 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Yunnan Energy New Material analyst has a price target of CN¥55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥14.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Yunnan Energy New Material'shistorical trends, as the 24% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 27% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 16% annually. So although Yunnan Energy New Material is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Yunnan Energy New Material's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yunnan Energy New Material going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Yunnan Energy New Material (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
