Shareholders didn't appear too concerned by iRay Technology Company Limited's (SHSE:688301) weak earnings. We did some digging, and we believe that investors are missing some worrying factors underlying the profit figures.

A Closer Look At iRay Technology's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2024, iRay Technology had an accrual ratio of 0.47. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥564.7m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥1.6b in the last year. We also note that iRay Technology's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥1.6b. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that iRay Technology's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥106m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If iRay Technology doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On iRay Technology's Profit Performance

Summing up, iRay Technology received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue iRay Technology's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with iRay Technology (including 1 which is significant).

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.