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Montage Technology Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Montage Technology Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

澜起科技有限公司刚刚错过了盈利,其营业收入数字低于预期
Simply Wall St ·  11/01 21:02

Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688008) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to CN¥64.55 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were CN¥906m, 24% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of CN¥0.34 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

澜起科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688008)的股东们可能会感到有些失望,因为其股票在最新第三季度业绩公布后的一周内下跌了7.8%,至64.55元人民币。营业收入为90600万人民币,比分析师预期的少了24%,尽管每股盈利为0.34元人民币,大致符合预期。在公布结果后,分析师们已更新了他们的盈利模型,了解他们是否认为公司前景发生了重大变化,或者一切如常,将会很有帮助。因此,我们收集了最新的盈利后的法定共识预估,以了解明年可能会发生什么。

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SHSE:688008 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 2nd 2024
SHSE:688008 盈利和营业收入增长 2024年11月2日

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Montage Technology are now predicting revenues of CN¥5.99b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 80% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 81% to CN¥1.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥6.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.93 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

在最新的业绩公布后,覆盖澜起科技的17位分析师现在预测该公司2025年的营业收入为59.9亿人民币。如果达到这一目标,与过去12个月相比,这将反映出营业收入实现了80%的显著增长。预计每股盈利将飙升81%,达到1.89元人民币。在此盈利报告之前,分析师们曾预测2025年的营业收入为61.1亿人民币,每股盈利(EPS)为1.93元。因此,显而易见,尽管分析师们已更新了他们的预估,但在最新业绩公布后,并没有出现对业务预期的重大变化。

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥75.18, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Montage Technology analyst has a price target of CN¥83.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥60.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Montage Technology shareholders.

对于营业收入或盈利预估以及75.18元人民币的目标价格均未有任何变化,这表明该公司在最近的业绩中达到了预期。然而,根据这些数据,我们不仅可以得出这个结论,一些投资者在评估分析师的目标价格时也喜欢考虑预估的差距。最乐观的澜起科技分析师的目标价格为83.60元人民币每股,而最悲观者的目标价为60.00元人民币。分析师对该业务的看法确实存在差异,但在我们看来,对预估的差距并不足够大,表明极端结果可能不会出现在澜起科技的股东们面前。

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Montage Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 60% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Montage Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.

现在来看看更大的图景,我们了解这些预测的一种方式是将其与过去的业绩和行业增长预期进行比较。分析师们确实期待澜起科技的增长加速,预测到2025年底的60%年增长率与过去五年平均每年12%的历史增长相比排名靠前。相比之下,我们的数据显示,预测在相似行业中(有分析师覆盖的)的其他公司将以每年24%的速度增长他们的营业收入。很明显,尽管增长前景比最近的过去更加明亮,分析师们也预计澜起科技的增长速度将超过更广泛的行业。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最明显的结论是,业务前景最近并没有发生重大变化,分析师们保持其盈利预测不变,与以往的预期相符。令人高兴的是,营收预测没有发生重大变化,该业务仍有望比更广泛的行业增长更快。一致的目标价格没有发生实质性变化,这表明通过最新的预测,业务的内在价值没有发生任何重大变化。

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Montage Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

有关公司收入的长期轨迹比明年更加重要。我们有来自多位澜起科技分析师的估计数据,一直延伸到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Montage Technology you should be aware of.

不过,您应该始终考虑风险。举例来说,我们已经发现了对澜起科技的2个警告信号,希望您能注意。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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