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Lacklustre Performance Is Driving The AES Corporation's (NYSE:AES) 26% Price Drop

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 2 08:22

The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 12% share price drop.

Since its price has dipped substantially, it would be understandable if you think AES is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 0.9x, considering almost half the companies in the United States' Renewable Energy industry have P/S ratios above 2.2x. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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NYSE:AES Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry November 2nd 2024

What Does AES' Recent Performance Look Like?

AES has been doing a reasonable job lately as its revenue hasn't declined as much as most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to dive, which has kept the P/S suppressed. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value. But at the very least, you'd be hoping that revenue doesn't fall off a cliff completely if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Keen to find out how analysts think AES' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is AES' Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like AES' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.7% decrease to the company's top line. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 12% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.0% per annum as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 12% per year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in consideration, its clear as to why AES' P/S is falling short industry peers. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

AES' recently weak share price has pulled its P/S back below other Renewable Energy companies. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As expected, our analysis of AES' analyst forecasts confirms that the company's underwhelming revenue outlook is a major contributor to its low P/S. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for AES you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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