We Think Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd (SHSE:600460) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd (SHSE:600460) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600460) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
戴维·伊本说得很好,'波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本永久损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过载可能导致灭顶之灾。重要的是,士兰微电子股份有限公司(SHSE:600460)确实有债务。 但更重要的问题是:这笔债务带来了多大风险?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资本还是通过自身现金流量。资本主义的一部分是“创造性毁灭”的过程,失败的企业会被银行无情地清算掉。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债累累的公司因为贷款人强迫他们以折价价格筹集资本而永久性地稀释股东权益。然而,债务可以取代稀释,成为需要资金以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。当我们分析债务水平时,我们首先要考虑现金和债务水平。
How Much Debt Does Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd Carry?
士兰微电子股份有限公司承担了多少债务?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd had CN¥5.97b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.70b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.27b.
下面的图表(您可以点击查看更多详细信息)显示,2024年9月,士兰微电子有59.7亿人民币的债务,与前一年大致相同。 另一方面,它有47亿人民币的现金,净债务约为12.7亿人民币。
How Strong Is Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd's Balance Sheet?
士兰微的资产负债表有多强?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd had liabilities of CN¥6.95b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.76b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥4.70b as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.36b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥1.65b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,士兰微有一年内到期的负债为69.5亿人民币,以及之后到期的37.6亿人民币的负债。 抵消这些义务,它有47亿人民币的现金以及43.6亿人民币的应收账款,12个月内到期。 因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款合计多16.5亿人民币。
Of course, Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥46.5b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
当然,士兰微的市值为465亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以控制的。 话虽如此,很明显我们应继续监控其资产负债表,以免情况变得更糟。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Service Corporation International的债务是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆盖其利息开支的3.7倍。综合考虑,虽然我们不希望看到债务水平上升,但我们认为它可以应对当前的杠杆。好消息是,Service Corporation International在过去12个月中将其EBIT提高了2.9%,从而逐渐降低了其相对于收益的债务水平。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中获得了有关债务的大部分内容。但是,相对于资产负债表,更重要的是未来收益,这将决定Service Corporation International维持健康资产负债表的能力。如果您关注未来,您可以查看此免费报告,其中有分析师的利润预测。
Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd's net debt is only 0.95 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 15.3 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. In fact Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 49% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
士兰微的净债务仅为其EBITDA的0.95倍。 而其EBIT轻松覆盖了其利息支出,是其规模的15.3倍。 因此,您可以认为它受债务威胁并不比大象受小老鼠的威胁更多。 实际上,士兰微的救世主是其低企业债务水平,因为其EBIT在过去十二个月中下降了49%。 利润下滑(如果趋势持续)最终可能使即使是适度的债务变得相当危险。 资产负债表显然是在分析债务时要关注的领域。 但最终业务未来的盈利能力将决定士兰微是否能够随着时间加强其资产负债表。 因此,如果您关注未来,您可以查看这份展示分析师盈利预测的免费报告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最后,一家公司只能用冰冷的现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。 因此,我们明显需要看看EBIT是否导致相应的自由现金流。 在过去三年中,士兰微的自由现金流总体上呈现出相当大幅度的负增长。 尽管这可能是为了增长的支出所致,但这确实使债务变得更加风险。
Our View
我们的观点
Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd's EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Hangzhou Silan MicroelectronicsLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
士兰微的EBIt增长率和EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力确实令人担忧,在我们看来。但好消息是,看起来该公司能够轻松覆盖利率期货支出。当考虑到讨论的所有因素时,我们觉得士兰微在债务使用上存在一定的风险。虽然债务可以增加回报,但我们认为公司现在已经有足够的杠杆。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,士兰微在我们的投资分析中显示出2个警告信号,您应该了解...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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