Financial Union News on November 4th (Editor Xiaoxiang) - The US dollar and Bitcoin both dropped, while Trump's chances plummeted on the Polymarket platform. If in the last few trading days of the previous week, the "Trump trade" had shown signs of decline, as we officially enter the "election week" this week, this undercurrent seems to be becoming more apparent.

According to the data from the current most prominent election prediction platform Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning this year's election has already dropped to 54.5%, while Harris's chances have rapidly risen to 45.5%. Just last Friday, even though Trump's chances had fallen slightly, they were still as high as 63.2%.

At the same time, the price of Bitcoin has dropped over 5% from last week's high of $73,500 to $68,805, and the US dollar index also fell below the 104 level at the opening of the day.

So, what caused Trump's chances to rapidly drop by nearly 10 percentage points after just one weekend - from a stable advantage in gambling odds, back to a close race?

Many analysts have pointed out that the answer is clearly related to a key "red state" poll released over the weekend: Iowa (also known as Iowa state).

As we all know, this year's US election battleground states are mainly focused on these seven areas: the northern "Blue Wall" - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the southern "Sun Belt" - Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada. In recent days, the focus of many industry insiders on the election has been primarily on the outcome of these seven swing states.

Clearly, Iowa is not among the seven major swing states mentioned above. In fact, this state has been considered a sure "red state" for Trump throughout this year. However, a recent poll conducted last Saturday seems to have suddenly increased the suspense over the state's election outcome.

Later on Saturday last week, a poll jointly released by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom in Iowa showed Harris leading Trump by 47% to 44% as the election entered the final countdown in this Midwest state.

The poll conducted by the Des Moines Register was carried out by veteran non-partisan pollster J Ann Selzer, whose polls have long been considered the 'gold standard' of Iowa polls by Democratic and Republican political figures. This survey result represents a clear reversal compared to the September poll.

"It's hard for anyone to say they saw this coming," Selzer said, "(Harris) has clearly taken the lead."

The poll in Iowa shows that Harris's rise is partly attributed to an increase in support from independent female voters. The survey found that Harris leads by 13 percentage points among all independents, by 28 percentage points among independent women in the state, with 57% supporting Harris and 29% supporting Trump.

In recent years, Republicans have actually held a significant advantage in Iowa. In 2020, Trump defeated Joe Biden in the state by over 8 percentage points, and the non-partisan Cook Political Report had classified the state as a 'solid red state' in this year's election.

Undoubtedly, this surprising new poll is almost certain to sound the alarm for Trump's campaign team. In the final stages of the campaign, Harris is mainly focused on winning the neighboring swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, known as the 'blue wall' states in the north.

Jonah Goldberg, the conservative editor-in-chief of Dispatch, described the significance of this poll in an article, "I do not think Trump will lose Iowa. But if the vote in Iowa is close, that is not good news for him in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other places. In other words, Selzer may be wrong. But she has to be completely wrong for it to have any impact. That's entirely possible."

On Saturday, Trump's campaign team sharply criticized this new poll in Iowa, with Trump's campaign team calling it a 'bizarre outlier poll' in a memo released on Sunday. Jason Miller, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign, said in an interview, 'every cycle there's always one dumb poll.'

It is worth mentioning that another polling institution, Emerson College, still believes that Trump is leading by 10 percentage points in Iowa from last Saturday.

Regardless, with 75 million Americans having already voted early, the United States and even the whole world are anxiously waiting to see if Democratic presidential candidate Harris will become the first female president in American history or if Republican presidential candidate Trump will return to the White House. Less than 48 hours before the voting day, Harris and Trump will both be making a "crazy final push".

Editor/Somer