瑞士央行关注的核心通胀下降0.2个百分点至0.8%，其中剔除租金的私人服务通胀持续大幅下滑。Swiss inflation has declined again, increasing the possibility that the SNB will implement negative interest rates. Switzerland's consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month in October, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.6%, lower than the SNB's forecast for average inflation of 1.0% in the fourth quarter. The Swiss franc weakened against all G10 currencies after the news was released.
George Saravelos, a foreign exchange analyst at Deutsche Bank, said: “Swiss inflation data has further fallen into the deflationary range, and we think the possibility of negative interest rates is rising again.” The next SNB resolution will be held on December 12 at 16:30 Beijing time.
This decline in Swiss inflation was mainly driven by a drop in fuel prices due to lower global oil prices in recent months.
The core inflation that the SNB is concerned about fell 0.2 percentage points to 0.8%, with private services inflation excluding rents continuing to decline sharply.
The fall in the Swiss franc reflects market expectations for the SNB's December 12 policy meeting and further interest rate cuts in the future.
European economist Adrian Prettejohn said, “Switzerland's overall inflation and core inflation have once again fallen far short of expectations, increasing market concerns that Switzerland may temporarily enter deflation next year. This will increase the pressure on the SNB to take decisive action and increase the chances that interest rates may be cut by 50 basis points at the December meeting.”
Saravelos stated, “The current SNB policy interest rate is already very low in nominal terms, at only 1.0%, and there is limited room for further cuts to maintain a positive value.”
USD/CHF daily chart
At 10:25 Beijing time on November 4, USD/CHF was reported at 0.8653/56
