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Recent 8.6% Pullback Isn't Enough to Hurt Long-term Shenzhen AOTO Electronics (SZSE:002587) Shareholders, They're Still up 43% Over 3 Years

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 4 15:53

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Shenzhen AOTO Electronics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002587) shareholders have seen the share price rise 39% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (18%, not including dividends).

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Given that Shenzhen AOTO Electronics didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last 3 years Shenzhen AOTO Electronics saw its revenue shrink by 14% per year. Despite the lack of revenue growth, the stock has returned 12%, compound, over three years. Unless the company is going to make profits soon, we would be pretty cautious about it.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SZSE:002587 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 4th 2024

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Shenzhen AOTO Electronics, it has a TSR of 43% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Shenzhen AOTO Electronics had a tough year, with a total loss of 11% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.2%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Shenzhen AOTO Electronics that you should be aware of.

Of course Shenzhen AOTO Electronics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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