According to the Futu Securities app, the China Passenger Car Association stated that based on preliminary monthly data, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide in October was 1.4 million units, an increase of 58% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month. With the national scrappage renewal policy and various local policies to encourage trading in old vehicles for new ones in full force in October, it significantly boosted the growth of the car market. Coupled with the "Golden Week" holiday effect, the October automotive market showed a rapid growth trend, with the "Silver September, Gold October" effect significant. The recent rise in the stock market and stabilization in the real estate market promotions have reflected the recovery effect on residents' assets, indicating that a sustained positive stock market will inevitably bring continuous growth momentum to the automotive market.

The China Passenger Car Association pointed out that the national scrappage renewal subsidy standards implement differentiated incentives, with a subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for purchasing passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below. Due to the subsidy advantage for new energy vehicles over fuel vehicles by 5,000 yuan due to scrappage renewal, combined with the fact that new energy vehicles generally receive subsidies of several thousand yuan more than fuel vehicles under local policies for trading in old vehicles for new ones, the vast majority of users choose to purchase new energy vehicles for renewal. According to research, new energy vehicles accounted for over 60% in the replacement of new vehicles, especially driving a strong growth in entry-level pure electric vehicles and narrow plug-in hybrid market segments.

During the National Day holiday and "Golden Week," the heat in the passenger vehicle market significantly increased. Although there was a slight decline after the holiday, the overall automotive market continued to maintain a positive trend towards recovery. The local policy of trading in old vehicles for new ones gradually manifested its driving effect on the market, and the scrappage renewal policy continued to be actively implemented, heavily boosting the growth of the automotive market. The terminal sales volume of new energy vehicles in October showed a strong sales trend, contributing significantly to consumer growth. As of October 24th, the number of applications for national automotive scrappage renewal subsidies exceeded 1.57 million, while the number of applications for local automotive replacement subsidies exceeded 1.26 million, showing a rapid growth trend in subsidy applications. The monthly scrappage renewal application volume increased significantly month-on-month in the past few months, fully reflecting the pleasing effects of the scrappage renewal policy.

Recently, leading new energy companies have continued to expand their market advantage, with market differentiation intensifying under the dual credits policy, leading to a continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. According to China Passenger Car Association data, in September 2024, wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles from manufacturers with sales volume over ten thousand units accounted for 92.7% of the total new energy passenger vehicle sales for September. Based on preliminary data, the estimated sales volume for October of manufacturers with sales over ten thousand units in September was 1.3 million units. Calculating based on the previous month's structure ratio, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide in October is estimated to be 1.4 million units. According to China Passenger Car Association data, due to retail sales of new energy vehicles exceeding domestic wholesale sales from manufacturers significantly in August and September, there was a visible destocking of channels, hence the potential for significant growth in wholesale sales volume driven by inventory replenishment of new energy vehicles in October. Based on the corresponding domestic retail estimates, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles should continue to exceed 50% in October.

Main manufacturers of passenger vehicles' wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles in October