It's been a mediocre week for Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE:ONTO) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$176 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$252m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.07 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Onto Innovation is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Onto Innovation after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Onto Innovation from nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.15b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 51% to US$5.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.56 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$258. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Onto Innovation analyst has a price target of US$280 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$230. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Onto Innovation is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Onto Innovation'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 18% per year. So although Onto Innovation is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Onto Innovation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Onto Innovation's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
