It's been a sad week for The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES), who've watched their investment drop 14% to US$14.71 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.3b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.35 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering AES are now predicting revenues of US$13.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 43% to US$2.07. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.07 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$21.76, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic AES analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AES shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AES'historical trends, as the 7.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 6.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that AES is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AES' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.76, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AES. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AES analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AES has 4 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.