Shanghai Information2 Software's (SHSE:688435) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Shanghai Information2 Software's (SHSE:688435) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Shanghai Information2 Software Inc.'s (SHSE:688435) lackluster earnings announcement last week disappointed investors. We looked deeper and believe that there is even more to be worried about, beyond the soft profit numbers.
上海資訊2軟件股份有限公司(SHSE:688435)上週發佈的業績令投資者失望。我們深入研究後發現,除了低迷的利潤數字外,還有更多令人擔憂的事情。

Examining Cashflow Against Shanghai Information2 Software's Earnings
審查上海資訊2軟件的現金流與盈利能力
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
許多投資者並不了解從現金流量中計算的應計比率,但實際上它是一個衡量公司利潤由自由現金流(FCF)在一定期間內支持的程度的有用指標。簡單來說,這個比率將FCF從淨利潤中減去,然後將該數字除以公司在該期間內的平均經營資產。這個比率告訴我們公司的利潤超過其FCF的多少。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,負應計比率對公司是有益的,而正應計比率則是不利的。這並不是說我們應該擔心正應計比率,但值得注意的是應計比率相當高的地方。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,高應計比率通常是短期利潤的不良跡象。
Shanghai Information2 Software has an accrual ratio of 0.20 for the year to September 2024. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥8.46m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥39m in the last year. We also note that Shanghai Information2 Software's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥39m. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月,上海資訊2軟件的應計比率爲0.20。因此,我們知道其自由現金流遠低於其法定利潤,這幾乎不是好事。儘管其報告的利潤爲846萬元人民幣,但通過自由現金流數據可以看出,它在過去一年中實際虧損了3900萬元人民幣。我們還注意到,上海資訊2軟件去年的自由現金流實際上也是負值,因此我們可以理解股東們對其3900萬元人民幣的流出感到困擾。話雖如此,事情還沒完。我們可以看到,異常項目影響了其法定利潤,因此也影響了應計比率。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shanghai Information2 Software.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的強度。單擊此處查看我們對上海資訊2軟件資產負債表的分析。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Shanghai Information2 Software's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥12m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Shanghai Information2 Software's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
考慮到應計比率,上海信息2軟件過去十二個月的利潤因價值1200萬元人民幣的飛凡項目而得到提升,並不是特別令人驚訝。儘管我們喜歡看到利潤增長,但當飛凡項目做出巨大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們分析全球大多數上市公司時,我們發現重要的非常項目往往不會重複出現。鑑於這個名字,這並不奇怪。我們可以看到,相對於2024年9月那一年的利潤,上海信息2軟件的積極非常項目相當顯著。因此,我們可以推斷,非常項目正在使其法定利潤比其本來強大得多的盈利更加強大。
Our Take On Shanghai Information2 Software's Profit Performance
對於上海信息2軟件的盈利表現,我們的看法
Summing up, Shanghai Information2 Software received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shanghai Information2 Software's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you'd like to know more about Shanghai Information2 Software as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Be aware that Shanghai Information2 Software is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those are significant...
總結一下,上海信息2軟件從非常項目中獲得了利潤的良好提升,但未能將其賬面利潤與自由現金流相匹配。基於以上提到的原因,我們認爲倉促地瀏覽上海信息2軟件的法定利潤可能使其看起來比實際情況更好。如果您想更多了解上海信息2軟件作爲一家企業的情況,了解它所面臨的任何風險是很重要的。請注意,我們的投資分析顯示上海信息2軟件存在3個警示信號,其中2個是重要的。
Our examination of Shanghai Information2 Software has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對上海信息2軟件的審查主要關注了一些因素,這些因素可能使其盈利看起來比實際情況更好。基於此,我們對此持有一定懷疑態度。但有很多其他方法可以幫助您對公司做出判斷。有些人認爲高股權回報率是一家優質企業的良好跡象。儘管這可能需要您做一些研究,您可能會發現這份牛股名單或具有重要內部持股的股票名單對您有所幫助。
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