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Bondex Supply Chain Management's (SHSE:603836) Earnings Might Not Be As Promising As They Seem

Bondex Supply Chain Management's (SHSE:603836) Earnings Might Not Be As Promising As They Seem

邦德升鏈供應鏈管理 (SHSE:603836)的盈利可能不像它們看起來那麼令人期待
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/05 08:10

Investors appear disappointed with Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603836) recent earnings, despite the decent statutory profit number. We think that they may be worried about something else, so we did some analysis and found that investors have noticed some soft numbers underlying the profit.

投資者似乎對邦德斯供應鏈管理有限公司(SHSE:603836)最近的收益感到失望,儘管法定利潤數字不錯。我們認爲他們可能擔心其他事情,因此我們進行了一些分析,並發現投資者注意到利潤背後的一些數據較差。

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SHSE:603836 Earnings and Revenue History November 5th 2024
SHSE:603836 營業收入和歷史數據 2024年11月5日

Zooming In On Bondex Supply Chain Management's Earnings

聚焦邦德斯供應鏈管理的收益

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

許多投資者沒有聽說過現金流量的計提比率,但它實際上是衡量一個公司在給定期間的自由現金流(FCF)支持其利潤能力的有用指標。計提比率從該期間的利潤中減去FCF,並將結果除以公司在該時間內的平均營運資產。該比率告訴我們一個公司的利潤超過了其自由現金流的多少。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

因此,當一家公司的應計比率變爲負數時,這實際上是一件好事,但如果應計比率是正數,則是一件壞事。雖然應計比率爲正數並不是問題,這表明一定程度的非現金利潤,但高應計比率被認爲是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙面利潤無法與現金流相匹配。值得注意的是,一些學術證據表明,高應計比率通常是近期利潤的一個不好的跡象。

Bondex Supply Chain Management has an accrual ratio of 0.45 for the year to September 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥149.6m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥244m in the last year. We saw that FCF was CN¥358m a year ago though, so Bondex Supply Chain Management has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Bondex Supply Chain Management's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

邦德斯供應鏈管理截至2024年9月的年度應計比率爲0.45。統計數據顯示,這對未來收益來說是一個真正的負面因素。事實上,在這段期間,該公司根本沒有產生任何自由現金流。儘管報告了人民幣14960萬的利潤,但從自由現金流的角度來看,實際上在過去一年中燒掉了24400萬人民幣。我們看到,自由現金流一年前爲35800萬人民幣,因此邦德斯供應鏈管理至少過去能夠產生正面的自由現金流。然而,並不是只考慮這一點。應計比率反映了非常規項目對法定利潤的影響,至少在一定程度上如此。對股東來說的好消息是,邦德斯供應鏈管理去年的應計比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕數據可能只是利潤和自由現金流間短期不匹配的情況。如果情況確實如此,股東應尋找年度內的現金流改善相對於利潤。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Bondex Supply Chain Management.

注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊這裏查看我們對邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司資產負債表分析。

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

非常規項目如何影響利潤?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥92m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Bondex Supply Chain Management had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

公司去年由飛凡項目提振盈利9,200萬元,可能部分解釋了爲什麼其應計比率如此疲弱。儘管高盈利總是好事,但飛凡項目帶來的重要貢獻有時會減弱我們的熱情。我們對全球大多數上市公司進行過覈算,飛凡項目在性質上往往是一次性的是非常常見的。畢竟,這正是會計術語所暗示的。相比其2024年9月份的盈利,邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司飛凡項目的重要貢獻相當顯著。因此,我們可以推斷出飛凡項目使其法定盈利明顯強於其本來水平。

Our Take On Bondex Supply Chain Management's Profit Performance

我們對邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司盈利表現的看法

Summing up, Bondex Supply Chain Management received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Bondex Supply Chain Management'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Bondex Supply Chain Management you should be mindful of and 2 of these bad boys make us uncomfortable.

總結一下,邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司從飛凡項目中獲得了盈利上的一個不錯推動,但未能用自由現金流匹配其虛擬盈利。深思熟慮後,上述因素讓我們強烈感覺到邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司潛在的盈利能力並沒有看上去那樣好,基於法定盈利數字。鑑於此,如果您想對該公司進行更多分析,了解涉及的風險是至關重要的。例如:我們注意到邦迪克斯供應鏈管理公司存在3項警示信號,您應注意其中的2項,其中有兩項讓我們感到不舒服。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

在本文章中,我們研究了幾個可能影響利潤數據實用性的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但是,如果您能夠將精力集中在細節上,就一定會發現更多。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報是良好企業經濟的指標,而其他人則喜歡"跟隨資金"並尋找內部人員在購買的股票。因此,您可能希望查看這個高股本回報的免費收藏,或此具有高內部所有權的股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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