The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that the three quarterly reports for the transportation sector have been disclosed. In the aviation, airport express, railway and highway sectors, passenger traffic in the aviation sector continued to recover, but the price side performance was weak. The performance of most airlines in the three-quarter report declined, and the performance of China Airlines and Hainan Airlines Holdings achieved growth; in the airport sector, passenger traffic at various airports continued to grow, but the performance performance of Africa Airlines was weak; the performance of express delivery companies continued to optimize the cost side, and the performance of SF Holdings exceeded expectations. Express delivery performance is growing steadily; railways and highways are cyclical; Despite macroeconomic fluctuations, the performance of various companies has remained relatively stable.

The main views of China Post Securities are as follows:

Shipping sector: The consolidated freight rate index rebounded month-on-month this week, and the oil freight index declined month-on-month, and the dry bulk freight index declined somewhat.

In terms of the consolidation index, the SCFI Composite Index reported 2303.44 points this week, up 5.4% from the previous month; in terms of oil transportation, the BDTI index reported 957 points this week, down 7.6% from the previous month; in terms of dry bulk, the BDI index reported 1,378 points this week, down 2.3% from the previous month.

Aviation sector: Various airlines performed well in the third quarter in terms of traffic volume and passenger occupancy rates, but prices declined year-on-year, and most of the results reported for the third quarter declined.

Entering the traditional low season for civil aviation, the number of civil aviation flights and freight rates are relatively lackluster. This week, China liberalized visa-free entry policies for nine countries including South Korea. The scope of visa-free entry was further expanded, which is beneficial to the continued resumption of China's international routes. Although current civil aviation freight rates are relatively lackluster, due to lower oil prices, the pressure on the performance of various airlines in the fourth quarter is expected to ease to a certain extent.

The bank believes that the industry's supply constraints will still be strong in the next three years. On the demand side, although it will take time for current public and commercial demand to recover, the relationship between supply and demand for civil aviation is expected to continue to improve as the economy gradually recovers, raising the industry's profit level. We continue to recommend Spring Airlines, which has the strongest profitability, and recommend China Airlines and Juneyao Airlines.

Airport sector: Both passenger traffic and business volume increased, and revenue and performance were slightly lower than expected.

Various airports announced their three-quarter results. Although airport passenger traffic continues to grow, due to operating pressure on the non-aviation business under consumption pressure, although the business volume of each airport has increased, revenue and performance were slightly lower than expected. China's visa-free entry policy continues to loosen, which favors the growth of inbound passenger traffic at airports over a long period of time.

The short-term stock price of the airport sector or more follows the overall trend of the consumer sector. Looking at the long term, there is still uncertainty about the impact of capital expenditure implementation on long-term performance. It is recommended to closely track the cost and related transaction disturbances of each airport after the gradual implementation of expansion and implementation in the next few years. Follow Shanghai Airport, Shenzhen Airport, and Baiyun Airport.

Express logistics: Business volume continues to grow rapidly, reducing costs and increasing efficiency to improve unit profit levels.

Various express delivery companies have intensively disclosed their 2024 three-quarter reports. China's express delivery business volume maintained rapid growth in the third quarter, with 43.61 billion orders in a single quarter, an increase of 20.1% over the previous year. The competition for express delivery prices is still fierce, but companies are actively reducing costs, and the overall performance of the industry is relatively good as the cost of a single ticket continues. The growth rate of express delivery volume remained high in October, and the momentum continued unabated.

The State Post Office proposed an “anti-internal volume” for express delivery. As the capital expenditure of various express delivery companies peaked one after another, there was no basis for a vicious price war. The bank is still optimistic that the business volume of various express delivery companies will drive the scale of revenue, while reducing costs and increasing efficiency to improve the profit level of the unit. It first promotes Zhongtong Express, recommends SF Holdings and Yuantong Express, and focuses on Yunda shares and Shentong Express. The logistics sector focuses on Debon Co., Ltd., Eneng Logistics, Sinotrans, and China Eastern Airlines Logistics.

Railways and highways: Railways and highways are cyclical. Despite macroeconomic fluctuations, the performance of various companies has remained relatively stable.

The marketization of railway passenger and freight continues to advance, and we look forward to further deepening reforms to benefit the performance of listed companies. The Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee proposed promoting the optimization of toll road policies, which will promote the optimization of relevant policies in accordance with the “beneficiary pays” principle.

Currently, the average remaining operating period of road products of listed expressway companies is about 12 years. If the franchise period for the construction, renovation and expansion of road products can be extended in the future, it will benefit the sustainable operation capacity of the listed expressway company's main business. Some high-quality listed companies for long-term highways and railways have both weak cyclicality and high dividend attributes, and are still expected to generate excess profits. We recommend the China Merchants Highway, the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail, and pay attention to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway.

Investment advice

Recommended Spring Airlines (601021.SH), Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Zhongtong Express-W (02057), SF Holdings (002352.SZ), Yuantong Express (600233.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), Shentong Express (002468.SZ), Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail (), China Merchants Highway (001965.SZ), China Southern Express (002120.SZ), Sinotrans (601598. 601816.SH 601156.SH SH), Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (601333.SH), Eneng Logistics (09956), Debon Co., Ltd. (603056.SH), Air China (601111.SH).

Risk warning: Macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations, oil prices and exchange rates fluctuate sharply, express orders fall short of expectations, railway and road traffic, passenger and cargo flows fall short of expectations.