光大证券指出，三季度以来，欧线、美西的运力投放持续加速，逐步抵消地缘政治事件对运价的影响，集运现货运价快速下行，但仍高于2023年同期水平。后市需求方面，美国进入降息周期，企业投资维持平稳，欧洲消费者信心回升，美国库存周期整体处于主动补库的早期阶段，预计明年欧美补库需求仍有望得到支撑。供给方面，24年全球集装箱船队运力同比增速将达到10.2%，但由于24年新签合同量低于21-22年，25-26年集装箱船运力投放有望放缓，长期运力增长有望达到均衡。Shipping stocks generally rose in early trading. As of press release, Dexiang Shipping (02510) rose 6.03% to HK$4.57; Haifeng International (01308) rose 2.46% to HK$22.95; Orient Overseas International (01308) rose 1.42% to HK$114.4; and COSCO Marine Holdings (01919) rose 0.96% to HK$12.62.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that shipping stocks generally rose in early trading. As of press release, Dexiang Shipping (02510) rose 6.03% to HK$4.57; Haifeng International (01308) rose 2.46% to HK$22.95; Orient Overseas International (00316) rose 1.42% to HK$114.4; and COSCO Marine Holdings (01919) rose 0.96% to HK$12.62.
Shenyin Wanguo pointed out that recently, the increase in mid-late November began. ONE raised the freight rate from the 47th week. The price of the large cabinet rose from the previous 4,604 US dollars to 5004 US dollars, while Hapag-Lloyd raised the large cabinet price to 5,500 US dollars. OCL continued to rise, and the price of the large cabinet increased to 5,550 US dollars starting November 15. Currently, both 12 and 02 are based on the shipowners' recent price appreciation market valuation. The market's expectations for the peak season are still strong, but whether Xuanzang can actually be implemented has yet to be verified.
Everbright Securities pointed out that since the third quarter, capacity investment on European routes, the US, and the West has continued to accelerate, gradually offsetting the impact of geopolitical events on freight rates. Spot freight prices have declined rapidly, but they are still higher than the same period in 2023. In terms of future market demand, the US has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, corporate investment has remained stable, and European consumer confidence has rebounded. The overall US inventory cycle is in the early stages of active stock replenishment. It is expected that European and American inventory replenishment demand will still be supported next year. On the supply side, the global container fleet capacity growth rate will reach 10.2% year-on-year in '24, but since the number of new contracts signed in '24 is lower than in 21-22, container capacity investment is expected to slow in 25-26, and long-term capacity growth is expected to balance.
