The Zhitong Finance App learned that by the close of the US stock market on Monday, the stock price of MOS.US (MOS.US), the largest comprehensive fertilizer producer in the US, had rarely surged more than 5%. At one point, it had risen more than 8%, leading the US stock market benchmark, all constituent stocks of the S&P 500 index. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the first half of 2022 triggered a shortage of chemical fertilizer supply and a sharp rise in fertilizer prices, it was rare for Meisheng to see such a sharp rise. Nutrien (NTR.US), a chemical fertilizer giant from Canada, rose 5% at the close, and at one point it rose more than 6.5% in the intraday period. CF Industries (CF.US), one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers in the US, rose more than 3% in the intraday period, and eventually closed up 2.8%.

Since the fertilizer sector of the US stock market hit a record high in the first half of 2022 due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has rarely seen a similar boom. The main logic behind the sharp rise in fertilizer stocks on Monday is that there are media reports that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed to coordinate with Russian fertilizer manufacturers to cut potash production by about 10% to raise the market price of such fertilizer products. Both Russia and Belarus are major global producers and exporters of chemical fertilizers, and account for important global production and export shares in potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers.

According to reports, Lukashenko said during a meeting with Andrei Rybakov, the new CEO of the top potash producer in Belarus, “Everyone will understand that this is a very expensive product, and you need to pay an appropriate amount for it.” Rybakov was also asked to follow up on his proposal after discussions with some Russian fertilizer companies.

According to statistics from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia and Belarus together control up to 40% of global potash exports, and Belaruskali potash company in Belarus is subject to joint sanctions initiated by the US and the European Union.

However, it is worth noting that Russia's largest potash producer, Ural Potash, one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, has not been sanctioned nominally by Western countries, mainly because the company occupies an extremely important position in the global fertilizer industry, yet some EU member states still insist on refusing to import Russian fertilizer.

According to IFA and FAO statistics, Belarus is the fourth largest fertilizer exporter in the world, accounting for about 10% to 12% of the global fertilizer export market, and the type of fertilizer production is concentrated on potash fertilizer; Russia is the second largest exporter of chemical fertilizer, accounting for about 16% to 20% of the global market, second only to China, the largest fertilizer exporter. Furthermore, Russia is one of the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizer in the world and is also the second largest producer of potash fertilizer in the world. The export volume of nitrogen fertilizer and potash fertilizer is critical to the global fertilizer market. Therefore, if Russian fertilizer manufacturers, especially potash fertilizer manufacturers, follow Lukashenko's proposal, it will undoubtedly be a catalyst for a strong rise in global fertilizer prices and fertilizer stocks. This is why the market is closely watching trends in the Russian fertilizer industry. This uncertainty and expectations of price increases spread to the secondary market, driving the stock prices of Meisheng and Nutrien in the US to soar.