With election day underway, prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are showing divergent odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as major politics traders have placed their bets on the Vice President.
What Happened: Kamala Harris's odds of winning the presidency stand at 41% on Kalshi, compared to 38.4% on Polymarket at the time of writing. The spread between the two platforms was as big as 6% in the early morning U.S. Eastern time. Kalshi has a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list election-related trading contracts.
The top three traders on Polymarket have all sided with the Vice President to win the election.
Veteran trader Domer has wagered $224,344 on Harris winning the electoral college, $147,766 on a Democrat taking both the popular vote and Presidency and $164,884 on a Democrat winning the state of Pennsylvania. In a post on X, the all-time leading trader on the platform cited his estimate of Kamala Harris's chances to win the election around 55-60%.The second trader on Polymarket's all-time ranking, Rueben, bet over $300,000 on the Vice President to win the popular vote, the electoral college and the Democratic Party to win the Presidency and the House but lose control of the Senate. However, the trader also has a roughly $50,000 stake on the GOP to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote., with a total profit of $1.6 million recorded in his portfolio.
Third-placed trader YatSen bet $172,810 on a Democratic win in the popular vote and presidency, and $57,622 on Harris. The trader also has over $120,000 staked on an electoral college/popular vote split where Trump wins the presidency.
What's Next: The influence of prediction markets is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
